Purpose of Review

Our current understanding of current climate change in the West African, East African, and Congo Basin monsoon systems is reviewed. The detection of observed trends, the analysis of the physical processes of change, and model projections are discussed.

Recent Findings

An increase in Sahel precipitation has been associated with a summer intensification and northward shift of the West African monsoon system as a response to amplified warming over the Sahara. Declines in the boreal spring rains over East Africa, and in spring and summer rains in the Congo Basin, are also reported in the literature but with less corroboration through physical analysis and model projections. Confident analysis and accurate simulation are hampered by a relative scarcity of observations in these regions.

Summary

The West African monsoon system is trending to bring more precipitation to the Sahel in summer, and some is delivered through increasingly intense rainfall events. It is not yet clear whether recent trends observed in the East African and Congo Basin monsoon systems can be expected to persist as the global climate continues to warm. We cannot expect these monsoon systems to change linearly through the twenty-first century because, as the ocean basins warm at different rates and with different distributions, different forcing factors may become dominant.

中文翻译：

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非洲季风系统的当代气候变化

审查目的

综述了我们对西非，东非和刚果盆地季风系统当前气候变化的当前理解。讨论了观察趋势的检测，变化的物理过程分析以及模型预测。

最近的发现

萨赫勒降水增加与西非季风系统的夏季集约化和北移有关，这是对撒哈拉沙漠上变暖的反应。文献中也报道了东非北部的春季春季雨水减少，以及刚果盆地的春季和夏季雨水减少，但通过物理分析和模型预测却没有得到证实。在这些区域中相对缺乏观测，妨碍了可靠的分析和准确的模拟。

概要

夏季，西非季风系统趋向于为萨赫勒地区带来更多的降水，其中一些是通过日益强烈的降雨事件提供的。目前尚不清楚，随着全球气候继续变暖，在东非和刚果盆地季风系统中观察到的近期趋势是否会持续下去。我们不能期望这些季风系统在整个二十一世纪呈线性变化，因为随着海盆以不同的速率和不同的分布变暖，不同的强迫因素可能成为主导。