We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of \(10^{5}, 10^{6}, 10^{7}\mathrm {\ Mpc}^3\) for binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of \(1^{+12}_{-1}\)(\(10^{+52}_{-10}\)) for binary neutron star mergers, of \(0^{+19}_{-0}\)(\(1^{+91}_{-1}\)) for neutron star–black hole mergers, and \(17^{+22}_{-11}\)(\(79^{+89}_{-44}\)) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.

我们提出了目前对 Advanced LIGO、Advanced Virgo 和 KAGRA 引力波探测器在未来几年的合理观测场景的最佳估计，旨在提供信息以促进利用引力波进行多信使天文学的规划。我们估计了第三次 (O3)、第四次 (O4) 和第五次观测 (O5) 网络对瞬态引力波信号的敏感性，包括计划的高级 LIGO 和高级处女座探测器的升级。我们研究了网络确定来自致密天体双星系统（双中子星、中子星-黑洞和双黑洞系统）吸气的引力波信号源的天空位置的能力。定位源的能力以天空区域概率、光度距离和同移体积的形式给出。在 O3 期间，借助高级 LIGO 和 Virgo (HLV) 网络，所有类型的双星系统的中位天空定位区域（90% 可信区域）预计为数百平方度。在 O4 期间，借助 Advanced LIGO、Virgo 和 KAGRA (HLVK) 网络，中位天空定位区域将改善到几十平方度。在 O3 期间，中位定位体积（90% 可信区域）预计约为\(10^{5}, 10^{6}, 10^{7}\mathrm {\ Mpc}^3\)分别适用于双中子星、中子星-黑洞和双黑洞系统。 O4 中的本地化体积预计比 O3 中小约两倍。我们预测双中子星合并的检测计数为\(1^{+12}_{-1}\) ( \(10^{+52}_{-10}\) )，为\(0^{ +19}_{-0}\) ( \(1^{+91}_{-1}\) ) 用于中子星-黑洞合并，以及\(17^{+22}_{-11}\ ) ( \(79^{+89}_{-44}\) ) 用于 O3 期间 HLV 网络一年观测运行中的双黑洞合并（O4 期间 HLVK 网络）。我们评估未建模信号搜索的灵敏度和定位期望，包括搜索中等质量黑洞双星合并。