ABSTRACT

The Korean total fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world. This study assesses a broad range of factors associated with delayed first marriages, an important determinant of low fertility, using the Korean Population Census 2 per cent sample from 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 and other data sources. Using a multivariate logistic regression, we examine the probability of ever being married for men and women aged 30–34 and 35–39 for different years. We find that women with higher education delay marriage compared to those with a high school degree. Highly educated men marry earlier than men with high school or less education, particularly those aged 35–39. The strongest gender effect occurs among those working in agriculture, a declining industry in Korea. Men working in agriculture are much less likely to marry by age 40, but women marry earlier. In 2005 and 2010, men working in stable, high-paying industries marry earlier, with similar effects for women aged 30–34. Finally, several regional characteristics are associated with delayed marriage including higher housing prices, higher income for women, lower unemployment rate for young women, and higher income inequality, lower income, and higher unemployment rate for men.

摘要

韩国的总生育率是世界上最低的国家之一。这项研究使用1990年，1995年，2000年，2005年和2010年的2％韩国人口普查样本，评估了与初婚延迟有关的广泛因素，这是低生育率的重要决定因素。使用多元logistic回归，我们研究了30-34岁和35-39岁的男性和女性在不同年份结婚的可能性。我们发现，与高中学历的女性相比，受过高等教育的女性延迟了婚姻。受过良好教育的男人比那些受过中学或低学历的男人，尤其是35-39岁的男人，要早结婚。性别效应最强的是在农业中工作的人，而农业在韩国正在下降。农业工人到40岁结婚的可能性大大降低，但是女人早点结婚。在2005年和2010年，在稳定，高薪行业工作的男性更早结婚，对30-34岁的女性也有类似的影响。最后，一些区域性特征与延迟结婚有关，包括房价上涨，妇女收入增加，年轻妇女失业率降低以及收入不平等加剧，收入降低和男性失业率上升。