The combination of the high workload associated with keeping top executive branch positions filled and political dysfunction has led to longer and more frequent periods of vacancies in the U.S. executive branch. While scholars commonly claim that such vacancies are harmful for performance, this claim has been difficult to evaluate because of theoretical disagreement, conceptual confusion, and measurement challenges. In this paper we evaluate the relationship between vacancies and performance, describing primary mechanisms by which vacancies (as opposed to turnover) influence performance. We conduct a cross-sectional study using new data on appointee vacancies during the Trump Administration and original performance data from a 2020 survey of federal executives. The Survey on the Future of Government Service includes questions designed to measure comparative self-reported agency performance and questions targeting the mechanisms hypothesized to link vacancies and performance. The paper includes efforts to define and validate the measure of performance, assess the directionality of the relationship between vacancies and performance, control for potential confounders that may explain both vacancies and performance, and evaluate the mechanisms by which vacancies negatively affect performance. The results from OLS models suggest that persistent vacancies are correlated with lower performance. In particular, agencies with persistent vacancies (e.g., 3-4 years) have performance ratings of about one standard deviation lower than those agencies with consistent confirmed leadership. The most likely mechanisms leading to these results are the effect of vacancies on leader time horizons, agency morale, and investment by key stakeholders. We conclude with implications for appointment politics and administrative politicization

中文翻译：

---

职位空缺会损害联邦机构的绩效吗？

与保持高层行政部门职位填补相关的高工作量和政治功能失调相结合，导致美国行政部门的职位空缺时间更长、更频繁。虽然学者们通常声称这种空缺对绩效有害，但由于理论分歧、概念混乱和测量挑战，这种说法一直难以评估。在本文中，我们评估了职位空缺与绩效之间的关系，描述了职位空缺（相对于离职率）影响绩效的主要机制。我们使用特朗普政府期间任命人员空缺的新数据和 2020 年联邦高管调查的原始绩效数据进行了一项横断面研究。政府服务未来调查包括旨在衡量比较自我报告的机构绩效的问题和针对假设将空缺和绩效联系起来的机制的问题。本文包括努力定义和验证绩效衡量标准，评估职位空缺与绩效之间关系的方向性，控制可能解释职位空缺和绩效的潜在混杂因素，以及评估职位空缺对绩效产生负面影响的机制。OLS 模型的结果表明，持续的空缺与较低的绩效相关。特别是，具有持续空缺（例如，3-4 年）的机构的绩效评级比那些具有一致确认领导力的机构低约一个标准差。导致这些结果的最可能的机制是空缺对领导者时间范围、机构士气和主要利益相关者投资的影响。我们总结了对任命政治和行政政治化的影响