Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an increase in mental ill health compared with prepandemic levels. Longer-term trajectories of depression in adults during the pandemic remain unclear. Objective We used latent growth curve modelling to examine individual trajectories of depression symptoms, and their predictors, beyond the early stage of the pandemic. Methods Data were collected in three waves in May 2020, September/October 2020 and February/March 2021 in four UK cohorts (Millennium Cohort Study, Next Steps cohort, British Cohort and National Child Development Study). We included n=16 978 participants (mean age at baseline: 20, 30, 50 and 62, respectively). Self-reported depressive symptoms were the study outcome. Findings Symptoms of depression were higher in younger compared with older age groups (d=0.7) across all waves. While depressive symptoms remained stable from May 2020 to Autumn 2020 overall (standardized mean difference (SMD)=0.03, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.04), they increased in all age groups from May 2020 to Spring 2021 (SMD=0.12, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.13). Feelings of loneliness were the strongest predictor and concurrent correlate of increasing depressive symptoms across all cohorts, prepandemic mental health problems and having a long-term illness were also significantly associated with an increase in depression symptoms across all ages. By contrast, compliance with social distancing measures did not predict an increase in depression symptoms. Conclusions Feeling lonely and isolated had a large effect on depression trajectories across all generations, while social distancing measures did not. Clinical implications These findings highlight the importance of fostering the feeling of connectedness during COVID-19-related distancing measures. Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. Data can be accessed via .

中文翻译：

---

COVID-19 大流行期间长期抑郁轨迹的预测因素：对四个英国队列的纵向研究

背景 与大流行前的水平相比，COVID-19 大流行导致精神疾病有所增加。大流行期间成人抑郁症的长期轨迹仍不清楚。目的 我们使用潜在生长曲线模型来检查大流行早期阶段之后抑郁症状的个体轨迹及其预测因素。方法 2020 年 5 月、2020 年 9 月/10 月和 2021 年 2 月/3 月分三波在四个英国队列（千禧队列研究、下一步队列、英国队列和国家儿童发展研究）中收集数据。我们纳入了 n=16 978 名参与者（基线平均年龄分别为 20、30、50 和 62 岁）。研究结果是自我报告的抑郁症状。结果发现，在所有波次中，年轻人的抑郁症状高于老年人群 (d=0.7)。虽然从 2020 年 5 月到 2020 年秋季，抑郁症状总体保持稳定（标准化均差 (SMD)=0.03，95% CI 0.02 到 0.04），但从 2020 年 5 月到 2021 年春季，所有年龄组的抑郁症状均有所增加（SMD=0.12，95% CI） 0.11 至 0.13）。孤独感是所有队列中抑郁症状增加的最强预测因素和同时相关性，大流行前的心理健康问题和长期患病也与所有年龄段的抑郁症状增加显着相关。相比之下，遵守社交距离措施并不能预测抑郁症状的增加。结论 孤独感和孤立感对各代人的抑郁轨迹都有很大影响，而社交疏远措施却没有。临床意义 这些发现强调了在与 COVID-19 相关的疏远措施期间培养联系感的重要性。数据可能从第三方获得，并且不公开。数据可以通过以下方式访问。