Studies concerning nonlinear political dynamics, such as regime change, focus on macro-level structural factors and political agency. Tipping points are pitched mainly at these levels, and scholars therefore devote less attention to meso-level factors. To bridge this gap, this article develops a verbal model focusing on the collapse of mechanisms that sustain mythical state institutions as drivers of such dynamics. A mythical institution enjoys a reputation for power and influence among the public based on widespread and persistent stereotypical beliefs that embody a collectivity’s sense of origin and tradition, high performance and stability, and/or vision and mission. The argument advanced here is that nonlinear political dynamics may occur when the collapse of such mechanisms reflects on the unquestioned legitimacy that the mythical state institution enjoys, creating massive embarrassment for the regime because its mythical institution’s status requires government intervention to prevent believers from “fleeing” and/or revolting. This, in turn, undermines or debunks this institution’s myth, thereby generating high levels of anxiety, fear, anger, or other (mixes of) emotions. Which emotional process dominates depends on which reaction is stronger at the moment in question. When the level reaches an affective tipping point, citizens begin to update their evaluations and consider new information. This leads to behavioral convergence (e.g., mass protest, mass emigration, violence), which is in turn accelerated when the regime’s counter-response is publicly perceived as ineffective, thus highlighting the irreversibility of this process. This argument is illustrated herein by examining the 1989 collapse of East Germany’s emigration restrictions system.

有关非线性政治动态的研究，例如政权更迭，侧重于宏观层面的结构因素和政治机构。引爆点主要集中在这些层面，因此学者们较少关注中观层面的因素。为了弥合这一差距，本文开发了一个语言模型，重点关注维持神话般的国家机构作为这种动态驱动力的机制的崩溃。一个神话般的机构基于广泛而持久的陈规定型信念，在公众中享有权力和影响力的声誉，这些信念体现了集体的起源和传统感、高性能和稳定性，和/或愿景和使命。这里提出的论点是，当这种机制的崩溃反映了神话般的国家机构享有无可置疑的合法性时，可能会出现非线性的政治动态，从而给该政权带来巨大的尴尬，因为其神话般的机构的地位需要政府干预以防止信徒“逃离”和/或令人反感。这反过来又会破坏或揭穿该机构的神话，从而产生高度的焦虑、恐惧、愤怒或其他（混合）情绪。哪种情绪过程占主导地位取决于在所讨论的那一刻哪种反应更强烈。当水平达到情感临界点时，公民开始更新他们的评估并考虑新的信息。这导致行为趋同（例如，大规模抗议、大规模移民、暴力），而当政权的反击被公众认为无效时，行为趋同又会加速，从而突出这一过程的不可逆转性。本文通过考察 1989 年东德移民限制制度的崩溃来说明这一论点。