Global migration and mobility dynamics are expected to shift in the coming decades as a result of climate change. However, the extent to which migration is caused by climate hazards, in contrast or addition to other intervening factors, is a point of debate in literature. In this study, we conducted a systematic literature review to identify and consolidate factors which directly and indirectly influence climate change migration. In our review of the literature, we found a total of 21 economic, environmental, demographic, political, social, and personal intervening decision-making factors which affect climate migration. Causal interactions between these factors were identified using an axial qualitative coding technique called purposive text analysis. By combining causal links, a semi-quantitative causal loop diagram was created that represented factor interaction and feedback within the “climate migration system.” Using this model, we highlight influential feedback loops and point to how intervention strategies may cause downstream effects. This research helps to address calls for a better understanding of the complex decision-making dynamics in climate migration. In particular, results from our causal feedback loops show that intervention strategies targeted toward economic factors such as financial capital and livelihoods, as well as food security, would have the greatest impact in assisting climate-affected communities. These results help inform climate migration policy and aid planners in the future to better understand the interconnected system of factors that lead to the emergent outcome of climate migration.

中文翻译：

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影响气候移民的决策因素相互作用：基于系统的系统评价

由于气候变化，全球移民和流动动态预计将在未来几十年发生变化。然而，与其他干预因素相比，气候灾害在多大程度上导致了移民的产生，这是文献中争论的焦点。在这项研究中，我们进行了系统的文献综述，以确定和巩固直接和间接影响气候变化移民的因素。在文献综述中，我们发现共有 21 个影响气候移民的经济、环境、人口、政治、社会和个人干预决策因素。使用称为有目的文本分析的轴向定性编码技术来确定这些因素之间的因果相互作用。通过结合因果关系，创建了半定量因果循环图，代表“气候迁移系统”内的因素相互作用和反馈。使用这个模型，我们强调了有影响力的反馈循环，并指出干预策略如何可能导致下游影响。这项研究有助于更好地理解气候移民中复杂的决策动态。特别是，我们的因果反馈循环的结果表明，针对金融资本和生计以及粮食安全等经济因素的干预策略将对援助受气候影响的社区产生最大的影响。这些结果有助于为未来的气候移民政策提供信息，并帮助规划者更好地了解导致气候移民出现结果的相互关联的因素系统。