Recent evidence suggests that women in high-income countries desired to delay or forgo childbearing due to COVID-19, yet there remains insufficient evidence of COVID-19's impact on fertility desires in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We examined how quantum and tempo of fertility intentions changed in the first year of COVID-19 and assessed the impact of economic insecurity and sociodemographic characteristics on these changes in SSA. We used longitudinal data collected among 14,053 women from Kenya, Burkina Faso, two provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa and Kongo Central), and two states in Nigeria (Kano and Lagos). Descriptive analyses and logistic regression examined overall changes and economic and sociodemographic factors associated with quantum and tempo shifts. At the population-level, most women remained stable in their fertility intentions throughout the first year of COVID-19. Despite widespread income loss, few women reported that COVID-19 influenced their near-term childbearing intentions. However, among women who changed their intentions in Burkina Faso and Kenya, income loss was associated with transitions toward wanting to delay or limit childbearing, particularly among the poorest women. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for context when anticipating the consequences of public health emergencies on fertility.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 第一年生育意愿的变化：来自撒哈拉以南非洲四个国家的证据

最近的证据表明，由于 COVID-19，高收入国家的妇女希望推迟或放弃生育，但仍然没有足够的证据表明 COVID-19 对低收入和中等收入国家，特别是撒哈拉以南非洲国家的生育意愿有影响（社会保障局）。我们研究了在 COVID-19 的第一年生育意向的数量和速度是如何变化的，并评估了经济不安全和社会人口特征对 SSA 中这些变化的影响。我们使用了从肯尼亚、布基纳法索、刚果民主共和国的两个省（金沙萨和中刚果）和尼日利亚的两个州（卡诺和拉各斯）收集的 14,053 名妇女的纵向数据。描述性分析和逻辑回归检查了与量子和速度变化相关的总体变化以及经济和社会人口因素。在人口层面，在 COVID-19 的第一年，大多数女性的生育意愿保持稳定。尽管收入普遍下降，但很少有女性报告说 COVID-19 影响了她们近期的生育意愿。然而，在布基纳法索和肯尼亚改变意愿的妇女中，收入损失与向希望推迟或限制生育的转变有关，特别是在最贫穷的妇女中。这些发现强调了在预测突发公共卫生事件对生育率的影响时考虑背景的重要性。在布基纳法索和肯尼亚改变生育意向的女性中，收入损失与想要推迟或限制生育的转变有关，尤其是在最贫穷的女性中。这些发现强调了在预测突发公共卫生事件对生育率的影响时考虑背景的重要性。在布基纳法索和肯尼亚改变生育意向的女性中，收入损失与想要推迟或限制生育的转变有关，尤其是在最贫穷的女性中。这些发现强调了在预测突发公共卫生事件对生育率的影响时考虑背景的重要性。