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Bitcoin mempool growth and trading volumes: Integrated approach based on QROF Multi-SWARA and aggregation operators
Journal of Innovation & Knowledge ( IF 18.1 ) Pub Date : 2023-05-13 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jik.2023.100378
Alexey Mikhaylov , Hasan Dinçer , Serhat Yüksel , Gabor Pinter , Zaffar Ahmed Shaikh

Investors are looking for objects in which they invest their funds successfully, evaluating the effectiveness of alternative markets and their instruments. Historically, cash flow indicators most effectively reflected the mood of the masses in relation to any financial asset, both in the short-and long-term. This article examines in detail the queue of already completed, but not confirmed transactions in the bitcoin network. The mempool is able to timely display the growth in the number of transactions awaiting confirmation, which makes it a leading indicator of future cash flows that could affect the trading volumes and market prices of bitcoin. This study evaluates bitcoin mempool priorities and two different analyses have been conducted for this purpose. Firstly, the mempool periods are examined through a statistical analysis. Secondly, the performance determinants of mempool are assessed with q-ROF Multi-SWARA. In addition to q-ROF sets, weights are computed with IFS and PFS. Demonstrated here is that the results of all fuzzy sets are identical. This outcome explains the reliability of the findings and they indicate that a transaction is the most important determinant of the bitcoin mempool. It emerged that the adjusted mempool data (+16.7%) for 7-day and 30-day moving averages was able, with a time lag of 24–48 h, to indicate significant volatility of future bitcoin trading volumes (+1.6%) on average. The obtained values confirm the empirical conclusion reached here that the mempool growth leads to cash flow growth. An increase in future cash flows results in a substantial rise in future trading volumes. The key takeaway from the analysis is that mempool is able to effectively predict future increases in trading volumes based on the prior cash flow growth projected into mempool growth. However, as a price indicator, mempool does show mixed results with mostly uncertainty in the direction of price movement.



中文翻译:

比特币内存池增长和交易量:基于 QROF Multi-SWARA 和聚合运算符的集成方法

投资者正在寻找他们成功投资资金的对象,评估替代市场及其工具的有效性。从历史上看,现金流量指标最有效地反映了大众对任何金融资产的短期和长期情绪。本文详细检查了比特币网络中已经完成但尚未确认的交易队列。内存池能够及时显示等待确认的交易数量的增长,这使其成为未来现金流的领先指标,可能影响比特币的交易量和市场价格。本研究评估了比特币内存池的优先级,并为此进行了两种不同的分析。首先,通过统计分析检查内存池周期。第二,mempool 的性能决定因素使用 q-ROF Multi-SWARA 进行评估。除了 q-ROF 集之外,还使用 ​​IFS 和 PFS 计算权重。这里证明的是所有模糊集的结果都是相同的。这一结果解释了调查结果的可靠性,它们表明交易是比特币内存池最重要的决定因素。7 天和 30 天移动平均线的调整后内存池数据(+16.7%)能够以 24-48 小时的时间滞后表明未来比特币交易量的显着波动(+1.6%)平均的。获得的值证实了此处得出的经验结论,即内存池增长导致现金流增长。未来现金流量的增加导致未来交易量的大幅增加。该分析的关键要点是,内存池能够根据之前预测到内存池增长的现金流量增长,有效地预测未来交易量的增长。然而,作为价格指标,mempool 确实显示出好坏参半的结果,价格走势的方向大多存在不确定性。

更新日期:2023-05-13
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