We empirically investigate the impact of commodity price uncertainty on US and Euro Area (EA) trade flows. Our results indicate that the response of US and EA trade flows to commodity uncertainty shocks is larger, in magnitude and persistence, when compared with the respective impact of commodity supply and demand shocks. Moreover, our analysis shows that a one-standard deviation shock in commodity price volatility has a higher (in magnitude) and more persistent effect on trade when compared with the respective shocks in exchange rates and commodity prices. Finally, an uncertainty shock in various agricultural and metals markets has a similar negative impact on trade flows to that of energy uncertainty shocks.

中文翻译：

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商品价格不确定性和国际贸易

我们根据经验调查商品价格不确定性对美国和欧元区 (EA) 贸易流量的影响。我们的结果表明，与商品供需冲击各自的影响相比，美国和东亚贸易流量对商品不确定性冲击的反应在幅度和持久性上都更大。此外，我们的分析表明，与汇率和大宗商品价格各自的冲击相比，大宗商品价格波动的一个标准差冲击对贸易具有更高（幅度）和更持久的影响。最后，各种农业和金属市场的不确定性冲击对贸易流量的负面影响与能源不确定性冲击相似。