Background: Growth in cohabiting unions and non-marital childbearing sits at the core of research on the second demographic transition and related discussions of family bifurcation and children’s diverging destinies. Objective: How should we think about these two highly influential and purportedly universal depictions of family change in low-fertility countries where the link between marriage and childbearing remains strong? Using data from large national surveys in Japan, we address this question by describing growing heterogeneity in pathways to first marriage, with a focus on the temporal ordering of cohabitation, pregnancy, engagement, initiation of living together as married, and registration of marriage. Results: Our descriptive analyses demonstrate a substantial increase across marriage cohorts in variation in pathways to family formation in Japan, primarily reflecting growth in premarital cohabitation. Among women in the 2010–2015 marriage cohort, 39% cohabited with their husband prior to marriage. Educational differences in cohabitation experience are small, but cohabitation is more likely to be associated with premarital pregnancy for women with lower levels of educational attainment. Contribution: Our descriptive summary of trends and differences in pathways to first marriage provides not only a needed update on changing pathways to family formation in Japan, but also a valuable empirical basis for contextual modification or adaptation of two of the most influential theoretical frameworks for understanding family change in low-fertility societies.

中文翻译：

---

第二次人口转变的替代版本？日本初婚之路的改变（作者：Ryohei Mogi、James Raymo、Miho Iwasawa、Shohei Yoda）

背景：同居和非婚生育的增长是第二次人口转变研究以及家庭分歧和儿童不同命运相关讨论的核心。目标：我们应该如何看待这两种极具影响力且据称普遍的描述，描述婚姻与生育之间的联系仍然紧密的低生育率国家的家庭变化？我们利用日本大型全国性调查的数据，通过描述初婚途径中日益增长的异质性来解决这个问题，重点关注同居、怀孕、订婚、开始同居和结婚登记的时间顺序。结果：我们的描述性分析表明，日本不同婚姻群体的家庭形成途径差异显着增加，这主要反映了婚前同居的增长。在 2010-2015 年婚姻群体中的女性中，39% 的人在婚前与丈夫同居。同居经历的教育程度差异很小，但对于教育程度较低的女性来说，同居与婚前怀孕更有可能相关。贡献：我们对初婚途径的趋势和差异的描述性总结不仅提供了日本家庭形成途径变化所需的最新信息，而且为背景修改或适应两个最有影响力的理解理论框架提供了宝贵的经验基础低生育率社会中的家庭变化。