We analyze the distributional effects of macroprudential policy on mortgage cycles by exploiting the U.K. mortgage register and a 2014 15% limit imposed on lenders' high loan-to-income (LTI) mortgages. Constrained lenders issue fewer and more expensive high-LTI mortgages, with stronger effects on low-income borrowers. Unconstrained lenders strongly substitute high-LTI loans in local areas with higher constrained lender presence, but not high-LTI loans to low-income borrowers—consistent with adverse selection problems—implying lower overall credit to low-income borrowers. Consistently, policy-affected areas experience lower house price growth postregulation and, following the Brexit referendum (negative aggregate shock), better house price growth and lower mortgage defaults for low-income borrowers.

中文翻译：

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宏观审慎政策、抵押贷款周期和分配效应：来自英国的证据

我们利用英国抵押贷款登记册和 2014 年对贷款人的高贷款收入比 (LTI) 抵押贷款实施 15% 的限制，分析了宏观审慎政策对抵押贷款周期的分配影响。受到限制的贷方发行的高 LTI 抵押贷款数量更少且更昂贵，对低收入借款人的影响更大。不受约束的贷方强烈地用受约束程度较高的贷方存在来替代当地地区的高 LTI 贷款，但不是向低收入借款人提供的高 LTI 贷款（与逆向选择问题一致），这意味着对低收入借款人的总体信贷较低。一直以来，受政策影响的地区在监管后房价增长较低，并且在英国脱欧公投（负面总体冲击）之后，房价增长较好，低收入借款人的抵押贷款违约率较低。