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Size matters: the use and misuse of statistical significance in discrete choice models in the transportation academic literature
Transportation ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2023-09-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s11116-023-10423-y
Giancarlos Parady , Kay W. Axhausen

In this paper we review the academic transportation literature published between 2014 and 2018 to evaluate where the field stands regarding the use and misuse of statistical significance in empirical analysis, with a focus on discrete choice models. Our results show that 39% of studies explained model results exclusively based on the sign of the coefficient, 67% of studies did not distinguish statistical significance from economic, policy or scientific significance in their conclusions, and none of the reviewed studies considered the statistical power of the tests. Based on these results we put forth a set of recommendations aimed at shifting the focus away from statistical significance towards proper and comprehensive assessment of effect magnitudes and other policy relevant quantities.



中文翻译:

规模很重要:交通学术文献中离散选择模型中统计显着性的使用和误用

在本文中,我们回顾了 2014 年至 2018 年发表的学术交通文献,以评估该领域在实证分析中使用和误用统计显着性方面的立场,重点关注离散选择模型。我们的结果表明,39% 的研究完全根据系数的符号解释模型结果,67% 的研究在结论中没有区分统计显着性和经济、政策或科学显着性,并且没有一项审查的研究考虑了统计功效的测试。基于这些结果,我们提出了一系列建议,旨在将重点从统计显着性转向对影响程度和其他政策相关量进行正确和全面的评估。

更新日期:2023-09-28
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