After the Brexit referendum results, there may have been fears that a significant part of the British population in Spain, one of the largest outside the Commonwealth, would return to the United Kingdom. This paper uses different sources to assess whether, on the one hand, such a return movement has existed and, on the other hand, whether it could exist in the future. To do so, we analyse data from the Spanish Population Register (Padrón) and the Residential Variation Statistics (EVR) from 2003 to 2021, and a survey carried out in 2020 of 643 British people over 55 years of age living in Spain. In relation to the registry data, it has been observed that the return movement after Brexit has not been as significant as might be expected at a time of great uncertainty. Only in 2021 it was detected an increase in return movements, especially above the age of 75, probably caused by the end of the application of the Withdrawal Agreement. On the other hand, the survey results show that the intention to return is lower than in other similar surveys that have been carried out in the past, even in another COVID-19 outbreak scenario. Moreover, this intention to return is especially related to variables linked to insertion, such as not being properly registered or owning a property in the United Kingdom, among other variables.

中文翻译：

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在西班牙的英国老年移民：英国脱欧后的返回模式和意图

英国脱欧公投结果出来后，人们可能担心西班牙是英联邦以外最大的英国人口之一，其中很大一部分英国人口将返回英国。本文使用不同的来源来评估，一方面，这种回归运动是否已经存在，另一方面，它在未来是否可能存在。为此，我们分析了 2003 年至 2021 年西班牙人口登记册 (Padrón) 和住宅变化统计 (EVR) 的数据，以及 2020 年对居住在西班牙的 643 名 55 岁以上英国人进行的一项调查。就登记数据而言，据观察，英国退欧后的回报变动并未像在充满巨大不确定性的时期预期的那样显着。仅在 2021 年，才发现回国人数有所增加，特别是 75 岁以上的人，这可能是由于退出协议的适用结束所致。另一方面，调查结果显示，即使在另一次COVID-19爆发的情况下，回国意愿也低于过去进行的其他类似调查。此外，这种返回意图尤其与与插入相关的变量有关，例如没有在英国正确注册或拥有财产等变量。