Predictive bias (i.e., differential prediction) means that regression equations predicting performance differ across groups based on protected status (e.g., ethnicity, sexual orientation, sexual identity, pregnancy, disability, and religion). Thus, making prescreening, admissions, and selection decisions when predictive bias exists violates principles of fairness based on equal treatment and opportunity. First, we conducted a two-part study showing that different types of predictive bias exist. Specifically, we conducted a Monte Carlo simulation showing that out-of-sample predictions provide a more precise understanding of the nature of predictive bias-whether it is based on intercept and/or slope differences across groups. Then, we conducted a college admissions study based on 29,734 Black and 304,372 White students, and 35,681 Latinx and 308,818 White students and provided evidence about the existence of both intercept- and slope-based predictive bias. Third, we discuss the nature and different types of predictive bias and offer analytical work to explain why each type exists, thereby providing insights into the causes of different types of predictive bias. We also map the statistical causes of predictive bias onto the existing literature on likely underlying psychological and contextual mechanisms. Overall, we hope our article will help reorient future predictive bias research from whether it exists to the why of different types of predictive bias. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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提高我们对测试中预测偏差的理解。

预测偏差（即差异预测）意味着基于受保护状态（例如种族、性取向、性别认同、怀孕、残疾和宗教），预测表现的回归方程在不同群体之间存在差异。因此，在存在预测偏差的情况下做出预筛选、录取和选拔决定违反了基于平等待遇和机会的公平原则。首先，我们进行了一项由两部分组成的研究，表明存在不同类型的预测偏差。具体来说，我们进行了蒙特卡罗模拟，结果表明样本外预测可以更准确地理解预测偏差的本质——无论它是基于组间的截距和/或斜率差异。然后，我们对 29,734 名黑人学生和 304,372 名白人学生，以及 35,681 名拉丁裔学生和 308,818 名白人学生进行了大学招生研究，并提供了基于截距和斜率的预测偏差存在的证据。第三，我们讨论预测偏差的性质和不同类型，并提供分析工作来解释每种类型存在的原因，从而深入了解不同类型预测偏差的原因。我们还将预测偏差的统计原因映射到有关可能的潜在心理和情境机制的现有文献中。总的来说，我们希望我们的文章能够帮助重新定位未来的预测偏差研究，从是否存在到不同类型的预测偏差的原因。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2023 APA，保留所有权利）。