The low fertility levels observed in Mexico in recent years have been accompanied by high levels of poverty. The paper analyzes the effect of multidimensional poverty on the observed levels of fertility at the municipal level, that is, the relationship between the spatial dispersion of fertility and the observed levels of poverty. The analysis is based on the application of two hierarchical Bayesian models, the first one representing a spatial field that adjusts the behaviour of the total fertility rate and a second one that adds the effect of the poverty covariate to the spatial field. The results show that an increase in municipal poverty levels would cause a significant increase in fertility rates, which is evidenced by the formation of spatial clusters where high levels of fertility and poverty are observed.

中文翻译：

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2020年墨西哥各市生育率和多维贫困的贝叶斯空间分析

近年来墨西哥的低生育率伴随着严重的贫困。文章分析了多维贫困对市级观测生育水平的影响，即生育率空间离散度与观测贫困水平之间的关系。该分析基于两个分层贝叶斯模型的应用，第一个模型代表调整总生育率行为的空间场，第二个模型将贫困协变量的影响添加到空间场。结果表明，城市贫困水平的上升将导致生育率显着上升，这可以通过观察到高生育率和贫困水平的空间集群的形成来证明。