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Uneven evolution of regional European summer heatwaves under climate change
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2024-01-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100648
Samira Khodayar Pardo , L. Paredes-Fortuny

Heatwaves (HWs) are extreme events magnified under climate change with critical implications for the human and environmental systems they impact. These phenomena are generally investigated as a large-scale effect over extensive regions. However, their regional-to-local characteristics and trends are responsible for the specific effects on local communities. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics and evolution of regional HWs covering the 1950 to 2021 period across different European climates, central Europe (CE), France (FR), and the Iberian Peninsula (IP), including an analysis of the local and remote relationship between summer heat periods and winter-spring precipitation conditions. Our results confirm the general increase in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent of the HW phenomena over the three domains but point out their uneven evolution under climate change. While a larger frequency increase in the number of heat periods affects IP and FR, it is over CE, where the largest frequency change is observed in the most recent decades. Over north-western FR and CE the most intense HW events have recently registered, further over CE HWs’ long-lasting durations between five to six days have tripled from the sixties to recent decades. It is indeed over the latter that a substantial increase in human exposure to HW phenomena is observed. Probably, the unalike progressions are related to the proven differential rate of warming between the mean and hottest days at northern and southern European domains and the influence of soil conditions over IP on the development of summer heat periods over FR and CE.



中文翻译:

气候变化下欧洲区域夏季热浪的不均匀演变

热浪 (HW) 是气候变化下加剧的极端事件,对其影响的人类和环境系统具有重大影响。这些现象通常被研究为广泛区域的大规模效应。然而,它们的区域到地方特征和趋势决定了对当地社区的具体影响。本研究对 1950 年至 2021 年期间不同欧洲气候、中欧 (CE)、法国 (FR) 和伊比利亚半岛 (IP) 区域 HW 的特征和演变进行了全面分析,包括对当地夏季炎热期与冬春季降水条件之间的远程关系。我们的结果证实了这三个领域的 HW 现象的频率、强度、持续时间和空间范围普遍增加,但指出了它们在气候变化下的不均匀演化。虽然发情期数量的较大频率增加会影响 IP 和 FR,但它超过了 CE,在最近几十年中观察到了最大的频率变化。在西北部的FR和CE上,最近记录了最强烈的HW事件,此外,在CE上,HW的持续时间为五到六天,从六十年代到近几十年增加了两倍。事实上,相对于后者,人类接触硬件现象的情况大幅增加。可能,不同的进展与已证实的北欧和南欧地区平均气温和最热气温之间的升温速率差异以及IP土壤条件对FR和CE夏季炎热期发展的影响有关。

更新日期:2024-01-31
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