The central-eastern tropical Pacific is currently significantly warmer than normal, and the likelihood of a strong El Niño developing by early 2024 is 75–85%, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. Disruptions in ecosystem services and increased vulnerability, in particular in the coastal zones, are expected in many parts of the world. In this comment, we review the latest seasonal forecasts and showcase the potential for predicting the world’s coastlines based on data-driven modeling.

中文翻译：

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世界沿海水线的季节性预测：对即将到来的厄尔尼诺现象有何期待？

根据国家气象局气候预测中心的数据，中东部热带太平洋目前明显比正常温度高，到 2024 年初出现强厄尔尼诺现象的可能性为 75-85%。预计世界许多地区的生态系统服务会受到破坏，脆弱性也会增加，特别是在沿海地区。在这篇评论中，我们回顾了最新的季节性预测，并展示了基于数据驱动模型预测世界海岸线的潜力。