Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology—including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes—as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.

中文翻译：

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春季返青的持续时间和变异性调节了气候变化对人口的影响

单一的物候测量，例如物候进展的平均速率，可能不足以解释气候变化如何推动动物种群的趋势。在这里，我们提出了春季物候学的多因素概念——包括春季的开始、春季持续时间、年际变化及其时间变化——作为季节性环境中迁徙陆地物种种群动态的驱动因素。使用这个概念模型，我们发现，春季物候的推进对动物种群的影响可能会根据春季返青的持续时间和年际变化而被缓冲或放大，并且这些影响会通过物种的进化和可塑性适应而改变。此外，我们将我们的建模结果与基于标准化差异植被指数的春季绿化物候学和 106 种欧洲陆地鸟类的种群趋势的经验数据进行了比较，发现了类似的关联。我们得出了物候变化预计将如何影响整个欧洲候鸟种群的结论，并确定了特别容易遭受种群数量下降的地区。