Background: Longevity and old age are two aspects of the same phenomenon, representing a major concern for modern societies. There is universal consensus among scholars about the need for new frameworks and measures to define older people in a more effective and dynamic way. Objective: The aim of this paper is to compute prospective old-age thresholds (POATs) in six countries characterised by disparate progress in survival. To outline possible strategies to counter population ageing, the paper also examines trends in POAT and disability-free POAT (DF-POAT) in Italy by gender, geographical area, and education. Methods: To compute the POAT, we use life tables from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) and the Italian National Institute of Statistics, Istat. In addition, to compute the DF-POAT, data on mortality and health by geographical area and education were retrieved from Istat. Results: During the period 1950–2020 the POAT advanced everywhere, albeit in different rhythms by country, gender, and period. However, great differences in POAT and DF-POAT have emerged, depending on place of residence, education, and health. Conclusions: The POAT changes the evaluation of population ageing and could reduce the alarm caused by measures based on static chronological old-age thresholds. Using Italy as a case study, we show that overcoming geographical and social inequalities would counteract the population ageing process. Contribution: The paper highlights how individual and population ageing is a relative concept, as acknowledged by James W. Vaupel in his studies where he explores the equivalence between ages based on mortality risks.

中文翻译：

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老龄化与多样性：低死亡率国家的寿命和健康不平等（作者：Cosmo Strozza、Viviana Egidi、Maria Rita Testa、Graziella Caselli）

背景：长寿和老年是同一现象的两个方面，代表了现代社会的主要关注点。学者们普遍认为需要新的框架和措施来以更有效和动态的方式定义老年人。目的：本文的目的是计算六个生存进展差异较大的国家的预期老年阈值 (POAT)。为了概述应对人口老龄化的可能策略，本文还按性别、地理区域和教育程度研究了意大利 POAT 和无残疾 POAT (DF-POAT) 的趋势。方法：为了计算 POAT，我们使用人类死亡率数据库 (HMD) 和意大利国家统计研究所 (Istat) 中的生命表。此外，为了计算 DF-POAT，从 Istat 中检索了按地理区域和教育程度划分的死亡率和健康数据。结果：在 1950 年至 2020 年期间，POAT 在各地都取得了进步，尽管不同国家、性别和时期的节奏有所不同。然而，根据居住地、教育程度和健康状况，POAT 和 DF-POAT 出现了很大差异。结论：POAT改变了对人口老龄化的评估，可以减少基于静态老龄阈值的措施引起的恐慌。以意大利为案例研究，我们表明克服地理和社会不平等将抵消人口老龄化过程。贡献：本文强调了个人和人口老龄化是一个相对概念，詹姆斯·W·沃佩尔 (James W. Vaupel) 在他的研究中承认，他根据死亡风险探索了年龄之间的等效性。