Understanding patterns in forest cover change (FCC) is urgently needed to support government policies aimed at long-term sustainable forest management. Because of the struggle against forest loss, the Zagros forests (ZFs), which cover 3.5% of Iran's total land area, have been subjected to conservation policies. However, little is known about the efficacy of these strategies, and most information about dynamics of the ZFs is dependent on official data, which can be scant and unreliable. Therefore, the need for accurate statistics is felt more than ever in response to the requirements of international requests for information transparency. If positive or negative changes are recorded during the implementation of these policies, it is essential to assess the extent to which drivers were responsible for these changes. We assess the patterns of forest cover in the ZFs between 2002 and 2022 in the context of the implementation of one of Iran's most significant conservation policies. Furthermore, an evaluation of how forest dynamics relate to the main variables of FCC is performed. For this purpose, we used Landsat data and Google Earth Engine platform to calculate ZF cover dynamics for 61 counties in 11 provinces. Findings indicate that after 20 years of implementing conservation policies, the ZF cover has increased by 0.53%. Changes in the Human Development Index (HDI) and Gini indices were significant during the study period at the 95% confidence level, and the HDI demonstrated a significant correlation with Forest recovery ( = 0.151) and deforestation ( = −0.190) at the 95% confidence level. Changes in ZF have a significant relationship with distance from forests, roads, precipitation, and slope at the county level. In addition to the variables addressed in this research, conservation strategy played a positive role on ZF recovery. Findings can help clarify the changes and amount of forest cover, and have global consequences for concentrating more on improving the socioeconomic status of local people and conserving forests.

中文翻译：

---

扎格罗斯森林的保护政策和森林转型：人类福利、生物物理和气候驱动因素的统计分析

迫切需要了解森林覆盖变化（FCC）的模式，以支持旨在长期可持续森林管理的政府政策。由于与森林丧失的斗争，占伊朗土地总面积3.5%的扎格罗斯森林（ZFs）受到了保护政策的约束。然而，人们对这些策略的功效知之甚少，而且大多数有关 ZF 动态的信息都依赖于官方数据，而这些数据可能很少且不可靠。因此，为了满足国际上对信息透明度的要求，人们比以往任何时候都更加需要准确的统计数据。如果在这些政策的实施过程中记录了积极或消极的变化，则有必要评估驾驶员对这些变化的责任程度。我们在实施伊朗最重要的保护政策之一的背景下评估了 2002 年至 2022 年 ZF 的森林覆盖模式。此外，还对森林动态与 FCC 主要变量的关系进行了评估。为此，我们使用 Landsat 数据和 Google Earth Engine 平台计算了 11 个省 61 个县的采埃孚覆盖动态。调查结果表明，实施保护政策 20 年后，采埃孚覆盖率增加了 0.53%。研究期间人类发展指数 (HDI) 和基尼指数的变化在 95% 置信度下显着，并且在 95% 置信度下，HDI 与森林恢复 (= 0.151) 和森林砍伐 (= -0.190) 显着相关置信水平。ZF的变化与县域距森林的距离、道路、降水量和坡度有显着关系。除了本研究中涉及的变量之外，保护策略对 ZF 恢复也发挥了积极作用。研究结果有助于阐明森林覆盖的变化和数量，并对更多地关注改善当地人民的社会经济地位和保护森林产生全球影响。