The Mediterranean Basin has historically been subject to alien plant invasions that threaten its unique biodiversity. This seasonally dry and densely populated region is undergoing severe climatic and socioeconomic changes, and it is unclear whether these changes will worsen or mitigate plant invasions. Predictions are often biased, as species may not be in equilibrium in the invaded environment, depending on their invasion stage and ecological characteristics. To address future predictions uncertainty, we identified invasion hotspots across multiple biased modelling scenarios and ecological characteristics of successful invaders. We selected 92 alien plant species widespread in Mediterranean Europe and compiled data on their distribution in the Mediterranean and worldwide. We combined these data with environmental and propagule pressure variables to model global and regional species niches, and map their current and future habitat suitability. We identified invasion hotspots, examined their potential future shifts, and compared the results of different modelling strategies. Finally, we generalised our findings by using linear models to determine the traits and biogeographic features of invaders most likely to benefit from global change. Currently, invasion hotspots are found near ports and coastlines throughout Mediterranean Europe. However, many species occupy only a small portion of the environmental conditions to which they are preadapted, suggesting that their invasion is still an ongoing process. Future conditions will lead to declines in many currently widespread aliens, which will tend to move to higher elevations and latitudes. Our trait models indicate that future climates will generally favour species with conservative ecological strategies that can cope with reduced water availability, such as those with short stature and low specific leaf area. Taken together, our results suggest that in future environments, these conservative aliens will move farther from the introduction areas and upslope, threatening mountain ecosystems that have been spared from invasions so far.

中文翻译：

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欧洲地中海地区的植物入侵：当前热点和未来情景

地中海盆地历史上一直遭受外来植物入侵，威胁其独特的生物多样性。这个季节性干旱且人口稠密的地区正在经历严重的气候和社会经济变化，目前尚不清楚这些变化是否会加剧或减轻植物入侵。预测常常有偏差，因为物种在入侵环境中可能不处于平衡状态，这取决于它们的入侵阶段和生态特征。为了解决未来预测的不确定性，我们通过多个有偏差的建模场景和成功入侵者的生态特征确定了入侵热点。我们选择了欧洲地中海地区广泛分布的 92 种外来植物物种，并汇编了它们在地中海和世界范围内的分布数据。我们将这些数据与环境和繁殖压力变量相结合，以模拟全球和区域物种生态位，并绘制它们当前和未来的栖息地适宜性。我们确定了入侵热点，检查了它们未来潜在的变化，并比较了不同建模策略的结果。最后，我们通过使用线性模型来确定最有可能从全球变化中受益的入侵者的特征和生物地理特征，从而概括了我们的发现。目前，入侵热点遍布整个地中海欧洲的港口和海岸线附近。然而，许多物种只占据它们预先适应的环境条件的一小部分，这表明它们的入侵仍然是一个持续的过程。未来的情况将导致许多目前广泛存在的外星人数量减少，这些外星人将倾向于迁移到更高的海拔和纬度。我们的性状模型表明，未来的气候通常有利于采取保守生态策略的物种，这些策略可以应对可用水量的减少，例如身材矮小和比叶面积低的物种。总而言之，我们的结果表明，在未来的环境中，这些保守的外星人将远离引入地区并向上坡移动，威胁迄今为止尚未受到入侵的山区生态系统。