A forest investment's returns are generated from three sources: the land's gain in value, the timber's growth in size and product class improvement, and the timber price change. Land appreciation is rapidly leading to an inverse relationship with tenure. This phenomenon has turned what was once an academic exercise of land appraisal into a practical one that incorporates the asset's terminal value. We found that failing to account for the terminal value can lead to sizable differences in forest value, although those differences diminish with increasing planning time horizons. The findings can be of use to those who conduct appraisal work for larger timberland owners because (1) land held under short holding times has offered an increasingly large share of timber supply, (2) classical models fail to capture the complexity of management decisions under this regime, and (3) “short term” holders face a terminal value risk, which we evaluate through scenario analysis.

中文翻译：

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最终价值：木材采伐计划和林地估价中至关重要但经常被遗忘的因素

森林投资的回报来自三个来源：土地的增值、木材尺寸的增长和产品等级的提高以及木材价格的变化。土地升值正在迅速导致与保有权的反比关系。这种现象使曾经的土地评估学术活动变成了包含资产最终价值的实用活动。我们发现，不考虑最终价值可能会导致森林价值出现巨大差异，尽管这些差异随着规划时间范围的增加而缩小。研究结果对于那些对大型林地所有者进行评估工作的人来说是有用的，因为（1）持有时间短的土地提供了越来越大的木材供应份额，（2）经典模型无法捕捉管理决策的复杂性。 （3）“短期”持有者面临终值风险，我们通过情景分析对其进行评估。