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Evolving winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns and their potential triggers across western North America
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science ( IF 9 ) Pub Date : 2024-03-07 , DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00608-2
Jueun Lee , S.-Y. Simon Wang , Seok-Woo Son , Daehyun Kim , Jee-Hoon Jeong , Hyungjun Kim , Jin-Ho Yoon

We present a comprehensive analysis diagnosing the primary factors driving the observed changes in major atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere winter, including the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American winter dipole (NAWD), with particular focus on their roles in shaping anomalous weather across North America. Our investigation reveals a consistent influence of the NAWD over seven decades, contrasting with fluctuating impacts from PNA and minor impacts from NAO. In particular, an emergent negative correlation between the NAWD and PNA, signaling a shifted phase of teleconnection patterns, is identified. Such a relationship change is traced to enhanced upper-level ridges across western North America, reflecting a reinforced winter stationary wave. Through attribution analysis, we identify greenhouse gas emissions as a probable driver for the northward drift of the Asia-Pacific jet core, which, aided by orographic lifting over the Alaskan Range, subsequently amplifies the winter stationary wave across western North America. This work emphasizes the pronounced effect of human-induced global warming on the structure and teleconnection of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing vital perspectives on the dynamics of current climate trends.



中文翻译:

北美西部不断变化的冬季大气遥相关模式及其潜在触发因素

我们提出了一项综合分析,诊断了驱动北半球冬季主要大气遥相关模式观测到的变化的主要因素,包括太平洋北美模式(PNA)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)和北美冬季偶极子(NAWD),特别关注他们在塑造整个北美异常天气方面的作用。我们的调查揭示了 NAWD 七十年来的持续影响,与 PNA 的波动影响和 NAO 的轻微影响形成鲜明对比。特别是,NAWD 和 PNA 之间出现了负相关,表明遥相关模式的相位发生了变化。这种关系的变化可以追溯到北美西部上层脊的增强,反映了冬季驻波的增强。通过归因分析,我们确定温室气体排放是亚太喷气核心向北漂移的可能驱动因素,在阿拉斯加山脉上空的地形抬升的帮助下,随后放大了北美西部的冬季驻波。这项工作强调了人类引起的全球变暖对北半球冬季大规模大气环流的结构和遥相关的显着影响,为当前气候趋势的动态提供了重要的视角。

更新日期:2024-03-08
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