Modern economies rely on economic growth for stability and prosperity. Further, periods of stagnation and recession are currently associated with poor health and wellbeing outcomes for citizens. However, 50 years of research indicates that this state of dependency is ecologically unsustainable. It is therefore critical that we better understand the growth dependency of our economies and welfare systems, and how to overcome it. In this paper we first offer a working definition of growth dependency, clarifying its core dimensions. Next, taking the UK's adult social care sector as a case study, we argue that growth dependencies emerge in the welfare state as a result of three distinct dynamics: 1) growth in manifest needs; 2) labour productivity growth; 3) the pursuit of economic rents. Lastly, we propose a novel, sector-led framework for identifying, analysing and transforming growth dependencies. We make the case that the growth dependency of the welfare state is not inevitable, but is instead the product of specific social, economic and structural factors that can be disrupted and transformed, if we can find the political will to do so.

中文翻译：

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福利国家的增长依赖——英国成人社会护理部门的驱动因素分析和变革建议

现代经济依靠经济增长来实现稳定和繁荣。此外，目前的停滞和衰退时期与公民健康和福祉不佳有关。然而，50 年的研究表明，这种依赖状态在生态上是不可持续的。因此，我们必须更好地了解我们的经济和福利体系的增长依赖性以及如何克服它。在本文中，我们首先提供了增长依赖性的工作定义，阐明了其核心维度。接下来，以英国成人社会护理部门为案例研究，我们认为福利国家中出现的增长依赖是三种不同动力的结果：1）明显需求的增长； 2）劳动生产率增长； 3）追求经济租金。最后，我们提出了一个新颖的、以部门为主导的框架，用于识别、分析和转变增长依赖性。我们认为，福利国家的增长依赖并非不可避免，而是特定社会、经济和结构因素的产物，如果我们能够找到这样做的政治意愿，这些因素就可以被破坏和转变。