El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to the Euro-Atlantic exhibits strong subseasonal variations, as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) response systematically reverses its phase from early to late winter. Based on two sets of atmospheric model simulations in CMIP6 forced by historical and projected SST, we report a future disappearance of this teleconnection reversal, with the positive early winter ENSO-NAO correlation turning negative and the negative late winter correlation becoming stronger. We suggest that this negative NAO tendency is associated with the strengthening and eastward shift of the ENSO atmospheric teleconnection towards the Euro-Atlantic due to parallel changes in the ENSO tropical convection. While the early winter NAO phase transition is further facilitated by the mean state change in the North Atlantic jet meridional shear, which shifts the ENSO-driven Rossby wave-propagating direction, an intensified stratospheric pathway is demonstrated to play an additional role in strengthening the late winter NAO response.

厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）与欧洲大西洋的遥相关表现出强烈的次季节变化，因为北大西洋涛动（NAO）响应从初冬到晚冬系统地反转其相位。基于受历史和预测海温影响的 CMIP6 中的两组大气模型模拟，我们报告了这种遥相关逆转的未来消失，初冬 ENSO-NAO 正相关性变为负相关性，而冬末负相关性变得更强。我们认为，这种 NAO 负趋势与由于 ENSO 热带对流的平行变化而导致 ENSO 大气遥相关向欧洲大西洋的加强和东移有关。虽然北大西洋急流经向切变的平均状态变化进一步促进了初冬的 NAO 相变，从而改变了 ENSO 驱动的罗斯贝波传播方向，但增强的平流层路径被证明在加强晚期 NAO 相变方面发挥了额外的作用。冬季NAO反应。