Extreme climate events are hotspots in global change. However, research on the changes in future compound events and population exposure is still limited. Leveraging from the data of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this paper aims to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of global compound temperature and precipitation extreme events in the future. We also predict the risk of population exposure and quantify the contribution of different factors to exposure. The results show that: (1) In the next 80 years, compound hot-dry event (CHDE) will increase at a rate of 0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 days per decade under the three scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5, respectively. By comparison, compound hot-humidity event (CHHE) shows a downward trend under the three scenarios, with a downward rate of 0.01, 0.02, and 0.11 days per decade, respectively. (2) Under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, CHDE and CHHE have two or more mutation points. Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, CHDE shows a significant upward and CHHE shows a significant downward trend in the middle and late 21st century. These two indices exhibit periodic changes in all three scenarios (3) South Asia, West Asia, and Northeast Africa have higher CHDE values, while regions with higher CHHE values are located in North Asia and Greenland. (4) Climate change is a major factor affecting population exposure. For CHDE, climate, population, and their synergistic effects contribute about 75%, 20%, and 5% to the exposure, respectively. For CHHE, the contributions of these three factors are 85%, 10%, and 5% respectively. These findings provide scientific guidance for the rational formulation of population policies, the effective avoidance of climate disaster risks and the protection of human health.

中文翻译：

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全球陆地复合温度和降水极端事件以及相应人口暴露的未来预测

极端气候事件是全球变化的热点。然而，对未来复合事件和人群暴露变化的研究仍然有限。本文旨在利用耦合模式比对项目第六期（CMIP6）的数据，分析未来全球复合气温和降水极端事件的时空变化。我们还预测人群暴露的风险并量化不同因素对暴露的贡献。结果表明：（1）未来80年，在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP2-4.5三种情景下，复合干热事件（CHDE）将以每十年0.02、0.03和0.08天的速度增加。分别为 SSP5–8.5。相比之下，复合热湿事件（CHHE）在三种情景下均呈现下降趋势，下降率分别为每十年0.01、0.02和0.11天。 （2）在SSP1-2.6和SSP2-4.5场景下，CHDE和CHHE有两个或多个突变点。在SSP5-8.5情景下，21世纪中后期CHDE呈现显着上升趋势，CHHE呈现显着下降趋势。这两个指数在所有三种情景下都表现出周期性变化（3）南亚、西亚和东北非的 CHDE 值较高，而 CHHE 值较高的地区位于北亚和格陵兰岛。 (4)气候变化是影响人群暴露的主要因素。对于 CHDE，气候、人口及其协同效应分别对暴露量贡献约 75%、20% 和 5%。对于CHHE来说，这三个因素的贡献分别为85%、10%和5%。这些研究成果为合理制定人口政策、有效规避气候灾害风险、保护人类健康提供科学指导。