Decision-making in complex systems becomes even more challenging when the environment creates volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous conditions that disrupt operations. In these settings, the viable system model (VSM) advocates that delegated autonomy, appropriately calibrated, can help decision-makers deal with disruptions quickly to preserve system viability and performance. However, the delegated authority to act also requires the confidence and knowledge to make effective decisions and, in this vein, we explore the role of intuition as an enabler of autonomy in emergency response systems. Intuition allows decision-makers who confront a novel situation to translate their experience, knowledge, and protocols in creative ways – innovations permitted by their delegated authority. This study contributes to VSM literature by a) demonstrating how VSM's structure and complexity management principles can support the analysis of viability in multi-agency emergency systems and b) using VSM to design a systems model to explain the role of autonomy and intuition in supporting decision-making and complexity management in viable systems. Methodologically, the study uses a multi-stage discovery-oriented approach (DOA) to develop theory, with each stage combining literature, data analysis, and model/theory development and identifying further questions to inform the subsequent stage. Through the DOA, we synthesise literature (e.g. on VSM, complexity management) with seven months of field-based insights (from interviews, workshops, and observation of a live disaster exercise) to develop VSM models. This research makes two contributions to soft operational research (OR) literature: taking a black-box approach to theory development in soft OR to uncover the role of autonomy and intuition in managing complexity and demonstrating DOA as a methodology that can provide fresh insights for behavioural soft OR studies.

中文翻译：

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将系统配置为在危机中可行：直觉决策的作用

当环境产生扰乱运营的不稳定、不确定、复杂和模糊的条件时，复杂系统中的决策变得更具挑战性。在这些环境中，可行系统模型（VSM）主张，适当校准的委托自主权可以帮助决策者快速处理中断，以保持系统的生存能力和性能。然而，授权的行动还需要信心和知识来做出有效的决策，在这种情况下，我们探索直觉作为紧急响应系统自主推动者的作用。直觉使决策者在面对新情况时能够以创造性的方式转化他们的经验、知识和协议——这是他们所授予的权力所允许的创新。本研究通过以下方式对 VSM 文献作出贡献：a) 展示 VSM 的结构和复杂性管理原则如何支持多机构应急系统的可行性分析；b) 使用 VSM 设计系统模型来解释自主性和直觉在支持决策中的作用- 可行系统中的制作和复杂性管理。在方法上，该研究采用多阶段的发现导向方法（DOA）来发展理论，每个阶段都结合文献、数据分析和模型/理论发展，并确定进一步的问题来为后续阶段提供信息。通过 DOA，我们将文献（例如关于 VSM、复杂性管理）与七个月的实地见解（来自访谈、研讨会和现场灾难演习的观察）相结合，以开发 VSM 模型。这项研究对软运筹学 (OR) 文献做出了两项贡献：采用黑盒方法进行软运筹学理论发展，揭示自主性和直觉在管理复杂性中的作用，并证明 DOA 作为一种可以为行为学提供新见解的方法论。软或研究。