Climate warming is predicted to increase mean temperatures and thermal extremes on a global scale. Because their body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, ectotherms bear the full brunt of climate warming. Predicting the impact of climate warming on ectotherm diversity and distributions requires a framework that can translate temperature effects on ectotherm life‐history traits into population‐ and community‐level outcomes. Here we present a mechanistic theoretical framework that can predict the fundamental thermal niche and climate envelope of ectotherm species based on how temperature affects the underlying life‐history traits. The advantage of this framework is twofold. First, it can translate temperature effects on the phenotypic traits of individual organisms to population‐level patterns observed in nature. Second, it can predict thermal niches and climate envelopes based solely on trait response data and, hence, completely independently of any population‐level information. We find that the temperature at which the intrinsic growth rate is maximized exceeds the temperature at which abundance is maximized under density‐dependent growth. As a result, the temperature at which a species will increase the fastest when rare is lower than the temperature at which it will recover from a perturbation the fastest when abundant. We test model predictions using data from a naturalized–invasive interaction to identify the temperatures at which the invasive can most easily invade the naturalized's habitat and the naturalized is most likely to resist the invasive. The framework is sufficiently mechanistic to yield reliable predictions for individual species and sufficiently broad to apply across a range of ectothermic taxa. This ability to predict the thermal niche before a species encounters a new thermal environment is essential to mitigating some of the major effects of climate change on ectotherm populations around the globe.

中文翻译：

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预测变温动物的基本热生态位

预计气候变暖将增加全球范围内的平均气温和极端高温。由于变温动物的体温取决于环境温度，因此变温动物首当其冲地受到气候变暖的影响。预测气候变暖对变温动物多样性和分布的影响需要一个框架，该框架可以将温度对变温动物生活史特征的影响转化为人口和社区水平的结果。在这里，我们提出了一个机械理论框架，可以根据温度如何影响潜在的生活史特征来预测变温物种的基本热生态位和气候包络线。该框架的优点是双重的。首先，它可以将温度对个体生物体表型特征的影响转化为自然界中观察到的种群水平模式。其次，它可以仅根据性状响应数据来预测热生态位和气候包络线，因此完全独立于任何人口层面的信息。我们发现，内在生长速率最大化的温度超过了密度依赖生长下丰度最大化的温度。因此，物种稀有时增加最快的温度低于物种丰富时从扰动中恢复最快的温度。我们使用来自归化-入侵相互作用的数据来测试模型预测，以确定入侵物最容易侵入归化栖息地以及归化最有可能抵抗入侵的温度。该框架足够机械化，可以对单个物种产生可靠的预测，并且足够广泛，可以应用于一系列变温类群。这种在物种遇到新的热环境之前预测热生态位的能力对于减轻气候变化对全球变温动物种群的一些主要影响至关重要。