The interplay of phytoplankton competition and adaptation affects how phytoplankton, and ultimately marine ecosystems, respond to global warming. However, current ecosystem models that are run under global warming scenarios do not include both processes simultaneously. To fill this gap, we developed an innovative ecosystem model for the Baltic Sea that simulates competition between three phytoplankton functional groups and allows for adaptation to changing temperatures. As adaptation can be affected by the resuspension of dormant resting cells from the sediment, we explicitly implemented this mechanism. We found that resuspension tends to slow down adaptation, and that competition and adaptation influence each other. The outcome of the competition‐adaptation interplay depends on environmental conditions. In a steady environment, competition drives adaptation to individual temperature niches to reduce competition pressure. In a changing environment, adaptation allows inferior competitors to mitigate the dominance of preadapted superior competitors. Our results demonstrate that by neglecting adaptation, models can systematically overestimate warming‐related changes in taxa dominance. Ecosystem models should include both competition and adaptation to accurately simulate phytoplankton responses to global warming. Our model is ideally suited to integrate emerging evolutionary data based on long‐term data series (e.g., from sediment archives) to further improve projections of future ecosystem change.

中文翻译：

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对稳定或变化环境的进化适应影响海洋浮游植物的竞争结果

浮游植物竞争和适应的相互作用影响着浮游植物以及最终海洋生态系统对全球变暖的反应。然而，当前在全球变暖情景下运行的生态系统模型并不同时包括这两个过程。为了填补这一空白，我们为波罗的海开发了一种创新的生态系统模型，该模型模拟三个浮游植物功能群之间的竞争，并允许适应不断变化的温度。由于沉积物中休眠细胞的重新悬浮可能会影响适应，因此我们明确实施了这种机制。我们发现，重新暂停往往会减慢适应速度，并且竞争和适应会相互影响。竞争与适应相互作用的结果取决于环境条件。在稳定的环境中，竞争推动对个体温度生态位的适应，以减少竞争压力。在不断变化的环境中，适应使得劣势竞争对手能够削弱预先适应的优势竞争对手的主导地位。我们的结果表明，通过忽略适应，模型可以系统地高估与变暖相关的类群优势变化。生态系统模型应包括竞争和适应，以准确模拟浮游植物对全球变暖的反应。我们的模型非常适合整合基于长期数据系列（例如来自沉积物档案）的新兴进化数据，以进一步改进对未来生态系统变化的预测。