Since 1989, Warsaw has been experiencing major changes in its urban space. Both the intensity of development in the city and urban sprawl have been growing. Consequently, the intensity of the urban heat island (UHI) has increased. This paper presents the current state of the UHI in Warsaw based on data from in-situ air temperature measurements conducted at 29 sites. This study intended (1) to analyse and evaluate the development and extension of the UHI in Warsaw between 2001 and 2018 and provide a UHI projection for 2050 and (2) to indicate UHI intensity in land functionality types, making it possible to predict the development of the UHI accompanying the development of the city. The annual average UHI in the centre of Warsaw was 3.6 °C, varying from −0.2 °C in the forests, which were cooler than the reference site, through 1.2 °C in other green areas, up to 2.3 °C within multi-family housing developments with higher greenery participation. The mean maximum intensity of the UHI was 8.4 °C. Taking into account the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and planned urban development, maps of future spatial UHI distribution were created and changes (%) in the area covered by different UHI intensities were calculated.

中文翻译：

---

华沙（波兰）城市热岛：当前发展和 2050 年预测

自1989年以来，华沙的城市空间经历了重大变化。城市的发展强度和城市扩张都在不断增长。因此，城市热岛（UHI）的强度有所增加。本文根据 29 个地点的现场气温测量数据介绍了华沙城市热岛的现状。本研究旨在 (1) 分析和评估 2001 年至 2018 年间华沙城市热岛的发展和扩展，并提供 2050 年的城市热岛预测；(2) 表明土地功能类型的城市热岛强度，从而使预测发展成为可能城市热岛 (UHI) 伴随着城市的发展。华沙市中心的年平均 UHI 为 3.6 °C，变化范围从森林中的 -0.2 °C（比参考地点凉爽）到其他绿地的 1.2 °C，到多户住宅内的 2.3 °C绿化参与度较高的住房开发项目。 UHI 的平均最大强度为 8.4 °C。考虑RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景以及城市发展规划，绘制了未来热岛空间分布图，并计算了不同热岛强度覆盖面积的变化（%）。