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Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Big Microdata
Population and Development Review ( IF 10.515 ) Pub Date : 2024-04-12 , DOI: 10.1111/padr.12612
Brian C. Thiede , Abbie Robinson , Clark Gray

The effects of climate change on human migration have received widespread attention, driven in part by concerns about potential large‐scale population displacements. Recent studies demonstrate that climate‐migration linkages are often complex, and climatic variability may increase, decrease, or have null effects on migration. However, the use of noncomparable analytic strategies across studies makes it difficult to disentangle substantive variation in climate effects across populations and places from methodological artifacts. We address this gap by using harmonized census and survey microdata from six Asian countries (n = 54,987,838) to measure climate effects on interprovincial migration, overall and among subpopulations defined by age, sex, education, and country of residence. We also evaluate whether climate effects differ according to the distance and type of move. Exposure to precipitation deficits leads to substantively large reductions in out‐migration, and, surprisingly, these overall effects do not vary meaningfully by age, sex, or educational attainment. However, there are significant differences in the strength and direction of temperature and precipitation effects by country and within countries. Multinomial models show that precipitation deficits reduce internal migration to both adjacent and nonadjacent provinces. Finally, consistent with expectations that climate effects operate through economic mechanisms, spells of low precipitation reduce the probability of work‐related moves in the countries where the reason for migration is measured. Our findings provide further evidence that adverse environmental conditions can reduce migration, underlining the need for policymakers to consider how to support both displaced and trapped populations.

中文翻译:

亚洲的气候变化和内部移民:来自大微观数据的证据

气候变化对人类迁徙的影响受到了广泛关注,部分原因是对潜在的大规模人口流离失所的担忧。最近的研究表明,气候与移民的联系往往很复杂,气候变化可能会增加、减少或对移民没有影响。然而,在研究中使用不可比的分析策略使得很难将不同人群和地区之间气候影响的实质性差异与方法论工件区分开来。我们通过使用来自六个亚洲国家的统一人口普查和调查微观数据来解决这一差距(n= 54,987,838)衡量气候对省际移民的整体影响以及按年龄、性别、教育程度和居住国定义的亚人群之间的影响。我们还评估气候影响是否因移动距离和类型而异。降水不足会导致人口外迁大幅减少,而且令人惊讶的是,这些总体影响并没有因年龄、性别或教育程度而发生显着变化。然而,不同国家和国家内部温度和降水影响的强度和方向存在显着差异。多项模型表明,降水不足会减少向邻近和非邻近省份的内部迁移。最后,与气候影响通过经济机制发挥作用的预期一致,低降水量降低了在衡量移民原因的国家中与工作相关的流动的可能性。我们的研究结果提供了进一步的证据,表明不利的环境条件可以减少移民,强调政策制定者需要考虑如何支持流离失所和被困人口。
更新日期:2024-04-12
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