Forecasting invasion risk under future climate conditions is critical for the effective management of invasive species, and species distribution models (SDMs) are key tools for doing so. However, SDM‐based forecasts are uncertain, especially when correlative statistical models extrapolate to nonanalog environmental domains, such as future climate conditions. Different assumptions about the functional form of the temperature–suitability relationship can impact predicted habitat suitability under novel conditions. Hence, methods to understand the sources of uncertainty are critical when applying SDMs. Here, we use high‐resolution predictions of lake water temperatures to project changes in habitat suitability under future climate conditions for an invasive macrophyte (Myriophyllym spicatum). Future suitability was predicted using five global circulation models and three statistical models that assumed different species–temperature functional responses. The suitability of lakes for M. spicatum was overall predicted to increase under future climate conditions, but the magnitude and direction of change in suitability varied greatly among lakes. Variability was most pronounced for lakes under nonanalog temperature conditions, indicating that predictions for these lakes remained highly uncertain. Integrating predictions from SDMs that differ in their species–environment response function, while explicitly quantifying uncertainty across analog and nonanalog domains, can provide a more robust and useful approach to forecasting invasive species distribution under climate change.

中文翻译：

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通过测量和传达不确定性来改进物种分布预测：入侵物种案例研究

预测未来气候条件下的入侵风险对于有效管理入侵物种至关重要，而物种分布模型（SDM）是实现这一目标的关键工具。然而，基于 SDM 的预测是不确定的，特别是当相关统计模型外推到非模拟环境领域（例如未来气候条件）时。关于温度-适宜性关系的函数形式的不同假设可能会影响新条件下预测的栖息地适宜性。因此，在应用 SDM 时，了解不确定性来源的方法至关重要。在这里，我们使用湖水温度的高分辨率预测来预测未来气候条件下入侵大型植物栖息地适宜性的变化（狐尾藻）。使用五个全球环流模型和三个假设不同物种-温度功能响应的统计模型来预测未来的适宜性。湖泊的适宜性穗花芒草总体预测在未来的气候条件下水量会增加，但各湖泊适宜性变化的幅度和方向差异很大。在非模拟温度条件下，湖泊的变化最为明显，这表明对这些湖泊的预测仍然高度不确定。整合物种-环境响应函数不同的 SDM 的预测，同时明确量化模拟和非模拟领域的不确定性，可以提供更稳健和有用的方法来预测气候变化下入侵物种的分布。