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Determinants of irregular demand for regional rail passenger services – case study of High Tatras in Slovakia
Transportation ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2024-04-13 , DOI: 10.1007/s11116-024-10481-w
Martin Kendra , Oľga Blažeková , Mária Vojteková

The demand for public transport by tourists increases significantly in tourist-attractive destinations. This is in addition to regular passengers commuting to school and work. The level of irregular demand is influenced by several factors related to the characteristics of the day of the week, the period of the year, and the current weather. The main goal of the paper is to verify which factors most influence the irregular demand for transport in a tourist-attractive area to ensure operational planning of public passenger transport. Thanks to this, it is possible to ensure sufficient capacity and, at the same time, the efficiency of the operation of public passenger transport. The paper analyzes the main determinants of the irregular demand for regional public rail passenger transport in the High Tatras region of Slovakia. Multiple linear regressions were used to model the number of irregular passengers. The variables representing the day of the week, the attractiveness of the period, and the holiday were found to be the most significant. The variables describing the weather such as maximum daily temperature, precipitation, clouds, and wind had less influence. The obtained mathematical models for forecasting the irregular demand for public passenger transport can help optimize the timetable’s operational setting and the train sets’ size.



中文翻译:

区域铁路客运服务不规则需求的决定因素——斯洛伐克高塔特拉山案例研究

在旅游胜地,游客对公共交通的需求显着增加。这还不包括上下学和上班的普通乘客。不规则需求的水平受到与星期几、一年中的时期和当前天气的特征相关的几个因素的影响。本文的主要目的是验证哪些因素对旅游胜地的不规则交通需求影响最大,以确保公共客运的运营规划。因此,可以确保足够的运力,同时保证公共客运的运营效率。本文分析了斯洛伐克高塔特拉山地区区域公共铁路客运需求不规律的主要决定因素。使用多元线性回归对不正常乘客的数量进行建模。发现代表一周中的某一天、该时期的吸引力和假期的变量是最重要的。日最高气温、降水量、云量、风等描述天气的变量影响较小。所获得的预测公共客运不规则需求的数学模型有助于优化时刻表的运行设置和列车组的规模。

更新日期:2024-04-13
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