Cities are constantly dynamics, but emerge the stability of urban systems as evidenced by robust urban scaling. Both properties serve as necessary perspectives for understanding the evolution of cities and the complexity of urban systems. However, the evolution trends and mechanisms behind the above relationships, particularly concerning geographic processes, remain to be explored in depth. In this study, the dynamic fluctuations within individual cities and the macro-stability of the evolution of urban systems over the past two decades are systematically demonstrated. Subsequently, associations between urban systems and individual cities are established on the basis of micro- and macro-dynamic mechanisms. The trajectory of individual cities can be divided into scaled–driven growth (SG) and urban excess growth (EG). The former is the result of scaling effects within the system, while the latter is affected by global external effects. Taking as examples urban built-up area and social productions, the evolution pathways that vary from different attributes are analyzed. The results indicate that urban built-up area is more affected by scaling effects whereas social productions is driven more by global external effects. Moreover, we examine the driving forces and mechanism of EG from the aspects of economic development level, technological and economic progress, industrial structure and regional policy through an empirical analysis. This study provides a nuanced understanding of the trends and pathways of urban land–population system from the perspective of complex urban systems and holism to deepen the understanding for general properties of cities and co-evolution for urban population size and land expansion.

中文翻译：

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微观动态与宏观稳定耦合的城市土地与人口系统演化：趋势与路径

城市始终处于动态之中，但城市系统也呈现出稳定性，这一点可以通过强劲的城市规模来证明。这两个属性都是理解城市演变和城市系统复杂性的必要视角。然而，上述关系尤其是地理过程背后的演变趋势和机制仍有待深入探讨。本研究系统地论证了过去二十年各个城市内部的动态波动和城市系统演化的宏观稳定性。随后，城市系统与各个城市之间的关联在微观和宏观动力机制的基础上建立起来。单个城市的轨迹可分为规模驱动增长（SG）和城市超额增长（EG）。前者是系统内部规模效应的结果，后者则受到全球外部效应的影响。以城市建成区和社会生产为例，分析不同属性的演化路径。结果表明，城市建成区更多地受到尺度效应的影响，而社会生产更多地受到全球外部效应的驱动。并通过实证分析，从经济发展水平、科技经济进步、产业结构和区域政策等方面考察EG的驱动力和机制。本研究从复杂城市系统和整体论的角度对城市土地-人口系统的趋势和路径进行细致入微的理解，以加深对城市一般属性以及城市人口规模和土地扩张协同演化的认识。