This study aims to investigate the benefits of using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Seasonal Version 2 (ACCESS-S2), a state-of-the-art seasonal climate forecast (SCF) system, to improve contingent decision-making in the Australian wheat industry. Six locations in eastern Australia, three cultivars with varying maturities, and 17 times of sowing (TOS) were considered. Seasonal hindcasts from ACCESS-S2, initialized on the 1st May for the period 1981–2018 were linked with the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM)-Wheat model (v7.10) to (1) assess the hindcast skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting the occurrence of extreme weather events and in predicting above/below long-term median wheat yield; (2) identify optimal management strategies in mitigating the impact of extreme weather events; and (3) quantify the yield benefit of using ACCESS-S2 at the key decision-making point of sowing against a baseline management situation (i.e., without the use of SCF). Research results showed that (1) ACCESS-S2 has varying skills in predicting extreme climate indices and wheat yield across the six locations at a seasonal lead time; (2) 68 % of cases had a yield gain using SCF information; (3) across all cases, there was an average yield gain of 281 kg/ha representing an increase of 13 %; (4) benefits of using SCF were seen across predicted wet years, neutral years and dry years accounting for 69 %, 65 % and 72 % respectively, and (5) the identified optimal management options varied from location to location with earlier sowing associated with either or or both being the optimal strategies at most of the locations considered. Overall, there is a demonstrated benefit in utilizing ACCESS-S2 forecasts in the Australian wheat industry to improve farm management decision-making. The benefit can occur in any climate state but with dry years being more likely and significant (with an average yield increase of 97 % across the locations).

中文翻译：

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季节性气候预报——澳大利亚小麦产业管理极端天气事件风险的重要工具

本研究旨在调查使用澳大利亚社区气候和地球系统模拟器 - 季节性版本 2 (ACCESS-S2)（一种最先进的季节性气候预报 (SCF) 系统）来改善应急决策的好处在澳大利亚小麦行业。考虑了澳大利亚东部的六个地点、三个不同成熟度的品种和 17 次播种 (TOS)。 ACCESS-S2 于 5 月 1 日初始化的 1981-2018 年期间的季节性后报与农业生产系统模拟器 (APSIM)-小麦模型 (v7.10) 相关联，以 (1) 评估 ACCESS-S2 的后报技能预测极端天气事件的发生以及预测高于/低于长期小麦产量中值； (2) 确定减轻极端天气事件影响的最佳管理策略； (3) 根据基线管理情况（即不使用 SCF）量化在播种关键决策点使用 ACCESS-S2 的产量效益。研究结果表明，(1) ACCESS-S2 在预测季节提前期内六个地点的极端气候指数和小麦产量方面具有不同的技能； (2) 68%的案例使用SCF信息获得了产量增益； (3) 在所有情况下，平均增产为 281 公斤/公顷，增幅为 13%； (4) 在预测的湿润年、中性年和干旱年中使用 SCF 的效益分别占 69%、65% 和 72%，(5) 确定的最佳管理方案因地点而异，提前播种与提前播种有关。在大多数考虑的位置，其中一个或两个都是最佳策略。总体而言，在澳大利亚小麦行业利用 ACCESS-S2 预测来改善农场管理决策具有明显的好处。这种效益在任何气候状态下都可能发生，但干旱年份更有可能发生，也更为显着（各地的平均产量增加 97%）。