This paper investigates the underlying credit market shocks that historically affected business investment in the Slovenian economy. In contrast to the existing literature, we explore more profound structural shocks beneath the credit demand and supply shocks. For the purpose of structural identification, we propose a theoretical model of the credit market that reveals the credit market imperfections on the side of credit supply as well as liquidity demand. The theoretical structure justifies our set of identifying restrictions, further evaluated with the structural Bayesian VAR model. Our results confirm the relevance of loan supply shocks for the business investment activity, suggesting the existence of credit market imperfections. Furthermore, business investment is strongly conditioned by liquidity demand shocks, which explain a significant part of the variation in investment activity. Even though loan supply shocks constrained the investment activity in Slovenia during the financial crisis, the results of our analysis suggest that banks predominantly reacted to the increasing financial risk as opposed to the changes in their profit functions. Based on the results, we may conclude that in the common monetary area, fiscal policy should implement country-specific measures to effectively address the business sector's expectations regarding the economy's medium- and long-term development.

中文翻译：

---

揭示信贷市场冲击和投资动态：理论和实证视角

本文研究了历史上影响斯洛文尼亚经济商业投资的潜在信贷市场冲击。与现有文献相反，我们探讨了信贷需求和供给冲击下更深刻的结构性冲击。为了进行结构识别，我们提出了信贷市场的理论模型，揭示了信贷市场在信贷供给和流动性需求方面的不完善性。理论结构证明了我们的一组识别限制的合理性，并使用结构贝叶斯 VAR 模型进行了进一步评估。我们的结果证实了贷款供应冲击与商业投资活动的相关性，表明信贷市场不完善的存在。此外，商业投资很大程度上受到流动性需求冲击的影响，这解释了投资活动变化的很大一部分原因。尽管金融危机期间贷款供应冲击限制了斯洛文尼亚的投资活动，但我们的分析结果表明，银行主要对不断增加的金融风险做出反应，而不是其利润函数的变化。基于以上结果，我们可以得出这样的结论：在共同货币领域，财政政策应因地制宜，有效满足工商界对经济中长期发展的预期。