This paper analyses the impacts of monetary and fiscal policy of the euro area on output and inflation between 2005 and 2022 using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. We employ three alternative indicators of monetary policy, alongside government spending and revenue as fiscal variables to estimate the effects across different subperiods. The findings reveal that monetary policy tightening produces a negative and delayed effect on both output and inflation, with the effects differing across alternative monetary policy indicators in terms of duration and magnitude. A fiscal revenue shock is found to be inflationary, whereas a fiscal spending shock initially has a negative effect on growth that later turns positive, but is short-lived. The effects of fiscal policy shocks are more substantial than the effects of monetary policy shocks. The results also suggest that the effects may differ across subperiods, depending on the nature and intensity of the policy shifts.

中文翻译：

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政策转变时期欧元区货币和财政政策的宏观经济影响：SVAR 方法

本文采用结构向量自回归（SVAR）方法分析了2005年至2022年欧元区货币和财政政策对产出和通胀的影响。我们采用货币政策的三个替代指标以及政府支出和收入作为财政变量来估计不同子时期的影响。研究结果表明，货币政策紧缩对产出和通胀都会产生负面和延迟的影响，不同货币政策指标的影响在持续时间和幅度上有所不同。研究发现，财政收入冲击会引发通货膨胀，而财政支出冲击最初会对经济增长产生负面影响，随后转为正向影响，但这种影响是短暂的。财政政策冲击的影响比货币政策冲击的影响更为显着。结果还表明，不同时期的影响可能有所不同，具体取决于政策转变的性质和强度。