Dam breaks pose significant risks, necessitating simple and effective predictive models for disaster management. This study aims to enhance the understanding of dam-break flood hydrographs, an aspect less emphasized in traditional research focusing mainly on peak discharge and flow depth values. Employing a series of experiments, an improved general unit hydrograph model was used to analyze both discharge and flow depth hydrographs. This model is then critically compared with the standard gamma and log-normal asymmetric distribution models. The results reveal that the improved unit hydrograph model significantly outperforms these traditional models, particularly in predicting the rising stage of discharge hydrographs, evidenced by a 65 % reduction in root mean square error. Comparison of this model with real dam failures in natural river valleys shows its potential to be applied to changes in river slope and different dam-break rates. These advancements present a more precise methodology for predicting dam-break flood hydrographs, offering benefits for disaster management strategies.

中文翻译：

---

改进的溃坝洪水过程线通用单元模型

大坝溃决会带来重大风险，因此需要简单有效的灾害管理预测模型。本研究旨在加强对溃坝洪水过程线的理解，这是传统研究主要关注峰值流量和水流深度值时较少强调的一个方面。通过一系列实验，使用改进的通用单位过程线模型来分析流量和流深过程线。然后将该模型与标准伽玛和对数正态不对称分布模型进行严格比较。结果表明，改进的单位过程线模型显着优于这些传统模型，特别是在预测流量过程线的上升阶段方面，均方根误差降低了 65%。该模型与自然河谷实际溃坝情况的比较显示了其应用于河流坡度变化和不同溃坝率的潜力。这些进步为预测溃坝洪水过程线提供了更精确的方法，为灾害管理策略带来了好处。