Ice-jam flooding is a prevalent extreme event that impacts flood hazard and vulnerability. We introduce a conceptual model framework for Dynamic Ice-jam Flood Risk Assessment (DIFRA). DIFRA integrates ice-jam flood hazard, ice-jam flood risk, and human adaptation. Using agent-based modeling, we captured top-down (artificial breakup) and bottom-up (flood-proofing) adaptive behavior. Our study in Fort McMurray, Canada, shows the complex interaction between micro-level behaviors and macro-level phenomena over time. Our variance-based global sensitivity analysis shows the role of dynamic adaptive behavior in ice-jam flood risk, where the artificial breakage by the government can lead to a regime shift and a decrease in the ice-jam flood risk. However, it can also decrease the number of newly adapted residents to flood-proofing and the role of residents in ice-jam flood risk. DIFRA offers a comprehensive approach to understanding and managing ice-jam flood risk, with potential applications to similar riverine communities in cold regions.

中文翻译：

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冰塞洪水风险管理的进展：通过加拿大麦克默里堡基于代理的建模集成动态自适应行为

冰塞洪水是一种普遍存在的极端事件，影响洪水灾害和脆弱性。我们引入了动态冰塞洪水风险评估（DIFRA）的概念模型框架。 DIFRA 综合了冰塞洪水灾害、冰塞洪水风险和人类适应。使用基于代理的建模，我们捕获了自上而下（人工分解）和自下而上（防洪）的自适应行为。我们在加拿大麦克默里堡的研究表明，随着时间的推移，微观行为和宏观现象之间存在着复杂的相互作用。我们基于方差的全局敏感性分析显示了动态适应性行为在冰塞洪水风险中的作用，其中政府的人为破坏可能导致政权转变并降低冰塞洪水风险。然而，它也会减少新适应防洪的居民数量以及居民在冰塞洪水风险中的作用。 DIFRA 提供了一种全面的方法来了解和管理冰塞洪水风险，并有可能应用于寒冷地区的类似河流社区。