Microbes inhabiting the above- and belowground tissues of forest trees and soils play a critical role in the response of forest ecosystems to global climate change. However, generalizations about the vulnerability of the forest microbiome to climate change have been challenging due to responses that are often context dependent. Here we apply a risk assessment framework to evaluate microbial community vulnerability to climate change across forest ecosystems. We define factors that determine exposure risk and processes that amplify or buffer sensitivity to change, and describe feedback mechanisms that will modulate this exposure and sensitivity as climatic change progresses. This risk assessment approach unites microbial ecology and forest ecology to develop a more comprehensive understanding of forest vulnerability in the twenty-first century.

栖息在森林树木和土壤的地上和地下组织中的微生物在森林生态系统对全球气候变化的响应中发挥着关键作用。然而，由于反应通常依赖于环境，因此对森林微生物组对气候变化的脆弱性进行概括一直具有挑战性。在这里，我们应用风险评估框架来评估森林生态系统中微生物群落对气候变化的脆弱性。我们定义了决定暴露风险的因素以及放大或缓冲变化敏感性的过程，并描述了随着气候变化的进展调节这种暴露和敏感性的反馈机制。这种风险评估方法将微生物生态学和森林生态学结合起来，以更全面地了解二十一世纪的森林脆弱性。