Synchronous variation in demographic parameters across species increases the risk of simultaneous local extinction, which lowers the probability of subsequent recolonization. Synchrony therefore tends to destabilize meta‐populations and meta‐communities. Quantifying interspecific synchrony in demographic parameters, like abundance, survival, or reproduction, is thus a way to indirectly assess the stability of meta‐populations and meta‐communities. Moreover, it is particularly informative to identify environmental drivers of interspecific synchrony because those drivers are important across species. Using a Bayesian hierarchical multisite multispecies mark–recapture model, we investigated temporal interspecific synchrony in annual adult apparent survival for 16 common songbird species across France for the period 2001–2016. Annual adult survival was largely synchronous among species (73%, 95% credible interval [47%–94%] of the variation among years was common to all species), despite species differing in ecological niche and life history. This result was robust to different model formulations, uneven species sample sizes, and removing the long‐term trend in survival. Synchrony was also shared across migratory strategies, which suggests that environmental forcing during the 4‐month temperate breeding season has a large‐scale, interspecific impact on songbird survival. However, the strong interspecific synchrony was not easily explained by a set of candidate weather variables we defined a priori. Spring weather variables explained only 1.4% [0.01%–5.5%] of synchrony, while the contribution of large‐scale winter weather indices may have been stronger but uncertain, accounting for 12% [0.3%–37%] of synchrony. Future research could jointly model interspecific variation and covariation in breeding success, age‐dependent survival, and age‐dependent dispersal to understand when interspecific synchrony in abundance emerges and destabilizes meta‐communities.

中文翻译：

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法国常见温带鸣禽的成年生存同步性非常强

不同物种人口统计参数的同步变化增加了同时局部灭绝的风险，从而降低了随后重新殖民的可能性。因此，同步往往会破坏元群体和元社区的稳定。因此，量化人口统计参数（如丰度、生存或繁殖）的种间同步性是间接评估元种群和元群落稳定性的一种方法。此外，确定种间同步的环境驱动因素特别有用，因为这些驱动因素在不同物种中都很重要。使用贝叶斯分层多站点多物种标记-重捕获模型，我们研究了 2001 年至 2016 年期间法国 16 种常见鸣禽的成年表观存活率的时间种间同步性。尽管物种的生态位和生活史不同，但物种之间的年成体存活率在很大程度上是同步的（73％、95％的可信区间[47％–94％]的年份变异对于所有物种来说都是常见的）。这一结果对于不同的模型公式、不均匀的物种样本量以及消除生存的长期趋势是稳健的。迁徙策略之间也存在同步性，这表明 4 个月的温带繁殖季节的环境强迫对鸣禽的生存具有大规模的、种间的影响。然而，强烈的种间同步性并不能轻易地用我们先验定义的一组候选天气变量来解释。春季天气变量仅解释了同步性的 1.4% [0.01%–5.5%]，而大规模冬季天气指数的贡献可能更强但不确定，占同步性的 12% [0.3%–37%]。未来的研究可以联合模拟育种成功、年龄依赖性生存和年龄依赖性扩散方面的种间变异和共变，以了解何时出现大量种间同步并破坏元群落的稳定。