The impact of surface wave assimilation on hurricane track and intensity forecasts has been investigated using a fully coupled air-ocean-wave tropical cyclone data assimilation and forecast modeling system. A new 3DVAR wave assimilation method in the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system (NCODA) maps the 1D wave energy spectra from buoys to 2D directional wave energy spectra using the maximum likelihood method (MLM) and corrects the wave model forecast component directional wave energy spectra. The Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclone Prediction (COAMPS-TC) is used to conduct three Hurricane Harvey (2017) air-ocean-wave coupled data assimilation and forecasting experiments with and without the wave data assimilation. Hurricane Harvey traversed through the Western Gulf of Mexico from 24 August to 1 September, 2017 and made landfall in the Texas and Louisiana coast. Validation of track, maximum wind speed, significant wave height, and mean absolute wave periods show wave assimilation of the 1D wave energy spectra from 13 National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys reduced the forecast errors of these parameters compared to experiments without the wave assimilation. In spite of this positive outcome, the wave assimilation is unable to reduce Harvey’s 0-120 h forecast mean wave direction errors and correlation compared to the NDBC buoy time series

中文翻译：

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热带气旋波数据同化对海气波耦合飓风哈维（2017）预报的影响

使用完全耦合的空气-海洋波热带气旋数据同化和预报建模系统研究了表面波同化对飓风路径和强度预报的影响。海军耦合海洋数据同化系统（NCODA）中的一种新的 3DVAR 波浪同化方法使用最大似然法（MLM）将浮标的一维波浪能谱映射到二维定向波能谱，并校正波浪模型预测分量定向波能谱。热带气旋预报的海洋/大气中尺度耦合预报系统（COAMPS-TC）用于进行三个飓风哈维（2017）海-海-波耦合数据同化和预报实验，其中有和没有波浪数据同化。飓风哈维于2017年8月24日至9月1日横穿墨西哥湾西部，在德克萨斯州和路易斯安那州海岸登陆。对航迹、最大风速、有效波高和平均绝对波浪周期的验证表明，与未进行波浪同化的实验相比，来自 13 个国家数据浮标中心 (NDBC) 浮标的一维波浪能谱的波浪同化减少了这些参数的预测误差。尽管取得了这一积极成果，但与 NDBC 浮标时间序列相比，波浪同化无法减少哈维 0-120 小时预报平均波浪方向误差和相关性