Edaphic and vegetation conditions can render climatically suitable sites inadequate for a species to persist, constraining the amount of suitable habitat and the possibilities of tracking preferred climatic conditions as they shift in response to climate change. We combined climatic and remotely sensed data to model current and future distributions of nine extant taxa of ateline primates across the Amazon basin. We used the models to identify and quantify potential range changes and refugia of suitable habitat from the present to the latter half of the 21st century. We applied an ensemble forecasting approach for species distribution models using 596 spatially rarefied occurrences. We parameterised these models combining reflectance data from a basin‐wide Landsat TM/ETM+ image composite, and three sets of bioclimatic layers containing data for the current time period, and two different (moderate and worst‐case) climate change scenarios for 2041–2070. Eight out of nine taxa are likely to experience pronounced range losses, with seven of them predicted to lose over 50% of their currently suitable habitats irrespective of climate change scenarios. Modelled ateline richness exhibited a broad decrease in high‐richness areas, and a possible redistribution along the northernmost parts of western Amazonia. Refugia from 21st century climate change for the whole complex were mostly concentrated in western Amazonia, especially in its southern part. We identified hotspots of vulnerability to climate change and 21st century refugia for all Amazonian atelines while accounting for habitat characteristics that are important to guarantee the continued existence of suitable habitats for these strictly arboreal taxa. Increasing the understanding of climate change impacts on Amazonia's largest primates can help to inform spatial conservation planning decisions and management to sustain forest‐dwelling biodiversity over large areas such as Amazonia.

中文翻译：

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模拟 21 世纪的保护区和气候变化对亚马逊流域最大灵长类动物的影响

土壤和植被条件可能会使气候适宜的地点不足以维持物种的生存，从而限制了适宜栖息地的数量以及在气候条件因气候变化而变化时跟踪首选气候条件的可能性。我们结合气候和遥感数据来模拟亚马逊流域九种现存的灵长类动物类群的当前和未来分布。我们使用这些模型来识别和量化从现在到 21 世纪下半叶的潜在范围变化和适宜栖息地的栖息地。我们使用 596 个空间稀疏事件对物种分布模型应用集合预测方法。我们结合来自全流域 Landsat TM/ETM+ 图像合成的反射率数据、包含当前时间段数据的三组生物气候图层以及 2041-2070 年两种不同（中等和最坏情况）的气候变化情景，对这些模型进行了参数化。无论气候变化情况如何，九个类群中有八个可能会经历明显的活动范围丧失，其中七个类群预计将失去超过 50% 的当前适宜栖息地。模拟的线丰富度显示出高丰富度地区的广泛减少，并且可能沿着亚马逊流域西部最北部地区进行重新分配。 21世纪气候变化造成的整个保护区大部分集中在亚马逊流域西部，特别是其南部地区。我们确定了所有亚马逊流域的易受气候变化和 21 世纪庇护所影响的热点，同时考虑了栖息地特征，这些特征对于保证这些严格的树栖类群的合适栖息地的持续存在非常重要。加深对气候变化对亚马逊流域最大灵长类动物影响的了解，有助于为空间保护规划决策和管理提供信息，以维持亚马逊流域等大片地区的森林生物多样性。