Cattle heat stress causes billions of dollars' worth of losses to meat and milk production globally, and is projected to become more severe in the future due to climate change. Tree establishment in pastoral livestock systems holds potential to reduce cattle heat stress and thus provide nature‐based adaptation. We developed a general model for the impact of trees on cattle heat stress, which can project milk and meat production under future climate scenarios at varying spatial scales. The model incorporates the key microclimate mechanisms influenced by trees, including shade, air temperature, humidity, and wind speed. We conducted sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the relative influence of different mechanisms through which trees can impact cattle heat stress, and how tree impacts are influenced by climatic context globally. Trees hold the greatest potential to reduce cattle heat stress in higher latitudes and altitudes, with minor benefits in the lowland tropics. We projected the future contributions of current trees in mitigating climate change impacts on the dairy and beef herds of Aotearoa—New Zealand (A‐NZ) in 2070–2080. Trees were simulated to contribute to A‐NZ milk yields by over 491 million liters (lower CI = 112 million liters, upper CI = 850 million liters), and meat yields by over 8316 tonnes (lower CI = 2431 tonnes, upper CI = 13,668 tonnes) annually. The total economic contribution of existing trees in mitigating future cattle heat stress was valued at $US 244 million (lower CI = $US 58 million, upper CI = $US 419 million). Our findings demonstrate the importance of existing trees in pastoral landscapes and suggest that strategic tree establishment can be a valuable adaptation option for reducing cattle heat stress under climate change. Tree establishment in the next few years is critical to provide adaptation capacity and economic benefit in future decades.

中文翻译：

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树木通过减少牛的热应激以及对牛奶和牛肉生产的好处来为适应气候变化做出贡献

牛的热应激给全球肉类和牛奶生产造成了数十亿美元的损失，并且由于气候变化，预计未来将变得更加严重。牧区畜牧系统中的树木种植有可能减少牛的热应激，从而提供基于自然的适应。我们开发了一个关于树木对牛热应激影响的通用模型，该模型可以预测未来气候情景下不同空间尺度的牛奶和肉类产量。该模型纳入了受树木影响的关键小气候机制，包括树荫、气温、湿度和风速。我们进行了敏感性分析，以证明树木影响牛热应激的不同机制的相对影响，以及全球气候背景如何影响树木的影响。在高纬度和高海拔地区，树木最有可能减轻牛的热应激，但在低地热带地区的益处较小。我们预测了 2070 年至 2080 年现有树木在减轻气候变化对新西兰新西兰 (A-NZ) 奶牛场和肉牛群影响方面的贡献。模拟树木对澳大利亚-新西兰牛奶产量的贡献超过 4.91 亿升（下限 CI = 1.12 亿升，上限 CI = 8.5 亿升），肉类产量超过 8316 吨（下限 CI = 2431 吨，上限 CI = 13,668吨）每年。现有树木在缓解未来牛热应激方面的总经济贡献价值为 2.44 亿美元（CI 下限 = 5800 万美元，CI 上限 = 4.19 亿美元）。我们的研究结果证明了现有树木在田园景观中的重要性，并表明战略性树木种植可以成为减少气候变化下牛的热应激的宝贵适应选择。未来几年的树木种植对于未来几十年提供适应能力和经济效益至关重要。