While climate change has been shown to impact several life‐history traits of wild‐living animal populations, little is known about its effects on dispersal and connectivity. Here, we capitalize on the highly variable flooding regime of the Okavango Delta to investigate the impacts of changing environmental conditions on the dispersal and connectivity of the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). Based on remote sensed flood extents observed over 20 years, we derive two extreme flood scenarios: a minimum and a maximum flood extent, representative of very dry and very wet environmental periods. These conditions are akin to those anticipated under increased climatic variability, as it is expected under climate change. Using a movement model parameterized with GPS data from dispersing individuals, we simulate 12,000 individual dispersal trajectories across the ecosystem under both scenarios and investigate patterns of connectivity. Across the entire ecosystem, surface water coverage during maximum flood extent reduces dispersal success (i.e., the propensity of individuals to disperse between adjacent subpopulations) by 12% and increases dispersal durations by 17%. Locally, however, dispersal success diminishes by as much as 78%. Depending on the flood extent, alternative dispersal corridors emerge, some of which in the immediate vicinity of human‐dominated landscapes. Notably, under maximum flood extent, the number of dispersing trajectories moving into human‐dominated landscapes decreases by 41% at the Okavango Delta's inflow, but increases by 126% at the Delta's distal end. This may drive the amplification of human–wildlife conflict. While predicting the impacts of climate change on environmental conditions on the ground remains challenging, our results highlight that environmental change may have significant consequences for dispersal patterns and connectivity, and ultimately, population viability. Acknowledging and anticipating such impacts will be key to effective conservation strategies and to preserve vital dispersal corridors in light of climate change and other human‐related landscape alterations.

中文翻译：

---

日益极端的气候条件下的分散和连通

虽然气候变化已被证明会影响野生动物种群的一些生活史特征，但人们对其对扩散和连通性的影响知之甚少。在这里，我们利用奥卡万戈三角洲高度变化的洪水状况来调查环境条件变化对濒临灭绝的非洲野狗的扩散和连通性的影响（狼虎）。根据 20 年来观测到的遥感洪水范围，我们推导出两种极端洪水情景：最小和最大洪水范围，代表非常干燥和非常潮湿的环境时期。这些条件类似于气候变化加剧的情况下的预期情况，正如气候变化情况下的预期情况一样。使用以分散个体的 GPS 数据参数化的运动模型，我们模拟了这两种情况下整个生态系统中 12,000 个个体的分散轨迹，并研究了连接模式。在整个生态系统中，最大洪水范围内的地表水覆盖会使扩散成功率（即个体在相邻亚种群之间扩散的倾向）降低 12%，并使扩散持续时间延长 17%。然而，在当地，分散成功率下降了 78%。根据洪水的程度，会出现替代的扩散走廊，其中一些位于人类主导的景观附近。值得注意的是，在最大洪水范围下，进入人类主导景观的分散轨迹数量在奥卡万戈三角洲流入处减少了 41%，但在三角洲远端增加了 126%。这可能会加剧人类与野生动物的冲突。虽然预测气候变化对当地环境条件的影响仍然具有挑战性，但我们的结果强调，环境变化可能对扩散模式和连通性以及最终对人口生存能力产生重大影响。鉴于气候变化和其他与人类相关的景观变化，承认和预测此类影响将是有效保护战略和保护重要扩散走廊的关键。