We investigate the effect of sanctions on the occurrence of financial crises. We use the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithm to check whether binary classification mechanism selects sanctions as a predictive factor for the different types of financial crises. We find that trade sanctions matter for the increased probability of banking crises, while military sanctions are associated with currency crises. We find no evidence of the effect of sanctions on sovereign debt crises. We furthermore indicate which variables and their respective thresholds serve as potential harbingers of financial crises.

中文翻译：

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制裁会引发金融危机吗？

我们研究制裁对金融危机发生的影响。我们使用分类回归树（CART）算法来检查二元分类机制是否选择制裁作为不同类型金融危机的预测因素。我们发现，贸易制裁与银行危机可能性增加有关，而军事制裁则与货币危机相关。我们没有发现制裁对主权债务危机产生影响的证据。我们还指出哪些变量及其各自的阈值可以作为金融危机的潜在先兆。