Prospective risks from climate change impacts in ocean and coastal systems are urging the implementation of nature‐based solutions (NBS). These are climate‐resilient strategies to maintain biodiversity and the delivery of ecosystem services, contributing to the adaptation of social‐ecological systems and the mitigation of climate‐related impacts. However, the effectiveness of measures like marine restoration or conservation is not exempt from the impacts of climate change, and the degree to which they can sustain biodiversity and ecosystem services remains unknown. Such uncertainty, together with the slow pace of implementation, causes decision‐makers and societies to demand a better understanding of NBS effects. To address this gap, in this study, we use the risk mitigation capacity of marine NBS as a proxy for their effectiveness while providing a toolset for the implementation of the method. The method considers environmental data and relies on expert elicitation, allowing us to go beyond current practice to evaluate the effectiveness of NBS in reducing habitat or species risks under different future socio‐political and climate‐change scenarios. As a result, we present a ready‐to‐use tool, and supporting materials, for the implementation of the Climate Risk Assessment method and an illustrative example considering the application of the NBS “nature‐inclusive harvesting” in two shellfisheries. The method works as a rapid assessment that guarantees comparability across sites and species due to its low data or resource demand, so it can be widely incorporated to adaptation policies across the marine realm.

中文翻译：

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通过气候风险评估评估基于海洋自然的解决方案的有效性

气候变化对海洋和沿海系统影响的潜在风险正在敦促实施基于自然的解决方案（NBS）。这些是维持生物多样性和提供生态系统服务的气候适应战略，有助于社会生态系统的适应和气候相关影响的减轻。然而，海洋恢复或保护等措施的有效性并不能免受气候变化的影响，它们能在多大程度上维持生物多样性和生态系统服务仍不得而知。这种不确定性，加上实施速度缓慢，导致决策者和社会要求更好地了解国家统计局的影响。为了解决这一差距，在本研究中，我们使用海洋 NBS 的风险缓解能力作为其有效性的代理，同时提供用于实施该方法的工具集。该方法考虑了环境数据并依赖于专家启发，使我们能够超越当前的实践来评估 NBS 在未来不同的社会政治和气候变化情景下减少栖息地或物种风险的有效性。因此，我们提供了一个现成的工具和支持材料，用于实施气候风险评估方法，并提供了一个说明性示例，考虑了国家统计局“自然包容性捕捞”在两个贝类渔业中的应用。该方法作为一种快速评估，由于其数据或资源需求较低，保证了不同地点和物种之间的可比性，因此可以广泛纳入整个海洋领域的适应政策。