We examine the simple model put forth in a recent note by Loeb regarding the brightness of space debris in the size range of 1–10 cm and their impact on the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) transient object searches. Their main conclusion was that “image contamination by untracked space debris might pose a bigger challenge [than large commercial satellite constellations in Low-Earth orbit].” Following corrections and improvements to this model, we calculate the apparent brightness of tumbling low-Earth orbit (LEO) debris of various sizes, and we briefly discuss the likely impact and potential mitigations of glints from space debris in LSST. We find the majority of the difference in predicted signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), about a factor of 6, arises from the defocus of LEO objects due to the large Simonyi Survey Telescope primary mirror and finite range of the debris. The largest change from the Loeb estimates is that 1–10 cm debris in LEO pose no threat to LSST transient object alert generation because their S/N for detection will be much lower than estimated by Loeb due to defocus. We find that only tumbling LEO debris larger than 10 cm or with significantly greater reflectivity, which give 1 ms glints, might be detected with high confidence (S/N > 5). We estimate that only one in five LSST exposures low on the sky during twilight might be affected. More slowly tumbling objects of larger size can give flares in brightness that are easily detected; however, these will not be cataloged by the LSST Science Pipelines because of the resulting long streak.

中文翻译：

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LSST 中空间碎片闪烁的预期影响

我们研究了 Loeb 在最近的一份报告中提出的简单模型，该模型涉及 1-10 厘米尺寸范围内的空间碎片的亮度及其对鲁宾天文台遗产时空调查 (LSST) 瞬态物体搜索的影响。他们的主要结论是“未追踪的空间碎片造成的图像污染可能会带来更大的挑战（比近地轨道上的大型商业卫星星座）。”在对该模型进行修正和改进之后，我们计算了翻滚的各种尺寸的低地球轨道 (LEO) 碎片的表观亮度，并简要讨论了 LSST 中空间碎片闪烁的可能影响和潜在缓解。我们发现，预测信噪比 (S/N) 的大部分差异（大约为 6 倍）是由于大型西蒙尼巡天望远镜主镜和有限范围的碎片导致近地轨道天体散焦造成的。与 Loeb 估计的最大变化是，LEO 中 1-10 厘米的碎片不会对 LSST 瞬态物体警报的生成构成威胁，因为由于散焦，它们的检测信噪比将远低于 Loeb 估计的。我们发现，只有大于 10 厘米或具有明显更高反射率（产生 1 毫秒闪烁）的翻滚 LEO 碎片才可能被高置信度检测到（S/N > 5）。我们估计，黄昏时低空的 LSST 曝光中只有五分之一可能会受到影响。较大尺寸的较慢翻滚的物体会产生易于检测到的亮度耀斑；然而，由于由此产生的长期连续性，这些不会被 LSST 科学管道编录。