The singularity hypothesis is a hypothesis about the future of artificial intelligence on which self-improving artificial agents will quickly become orders of magnitude more intelligent than the average human. Despite the ambitiousness of its claims, the singularity hypothesis has been defended at length by leading philosophers and artificial intelligence researchers. In this paper, I argue that the singularity hypothesis rests on undersupported growth assumptions. I show how leading philosophical defenses of the singularity hypothesis fail to overcome the case for skepticism. I conclude by drawing out philosophical and policy implications of this discussion.

中文翻译：

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反对奇点假说

奇点假说是关于人工智能未来的假说，根据该假说，自我改进的人工智能体将很快变得比普通人聪明几个数量级。尽管奇点假说的主张雄心勃勃，但它还是得到了顶尖哲学家和人工智能研究人员的长期辩护。在本文中，我认为奇点假说建立在缺乏支持的增长假设之上。我将展示对奇点假说的主要哲学辩护如何无法克服怀疑论。最后，我阐述了这次讨论的哲学和政策含义。